Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann pulled a selfless page from Scott Walker ’06 and dropped out of the governor’s race to unite the party. He promptly endorsed U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany. As with Walker, who dropped out of a primary the first time he ran for governor, earning enormous goodwill, when Schoemann is governor someday, we will consider this the moment that ensured it (the guy is only 43).
Republicans now have a certain nominee without the headache of a bloody primary: U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, a congressman, former campground manager, and once-legislator from northwestern Wisconsin. Meanwhile, the Democrats are fighting inside their crowded clown car.
Can he win it? Yes.
Here’s why U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany can win the Wisconsin governor’s race in 2026:
1. He has a certain Wisconsin authenticity about him that people like in our governors. We elect governors with a bit of a “boy from Elroy” sensibility and humility. He has this quality. Heck, he even ran a campground. No mansions from out of state! Tony Evers is a partisan, but people perceive him as “folksy” and authentic, and so it softens his partisan edges. Tiffany’s authenticity will do that for him. He is a guy you’d want to have a beer with. The last “Tommy T” who ran for Wisconsin governor won.
2. He is a fighter who is willing to draw the contrast. He is smart and type A and will do well in debates. He is working hard.
3. The ICE stuff will settle down. It already is. And people will realize anew that they really don’t want open borders or illegal immigrants with criminal records to stay in this country. The Democrats will be stuck holding the bag full of extreme positions they are adopting now in the heat of the moment. A group of old men were chewing the fat at a local cafe recently. One said, “You know, I support getting people out of the country. I just don’t like how they are doing it.”
That is where most people are at. And if you listened to Tom Homan today, the Trump admin is already recalibrating how they are doing it. But most people are NOT with the abolish, hobble or unmask (endanger ICE) crowd. Just like most people don’t want to defund the police. Most people don’t want agitators shot in the streets, though. To state the obvious. People hate disorder. In times of disorder, though, they choose the candidate promising order (and that’s none of the Democrats.)
4. The Democrats have a fractured field of C-listers and will divide their money, energy, and grassroots. They will pull each other to the left.
5. Having socialist Francesca Hong in the race and getting some traction will pull the Democrats so far to the left that they will lose the middle and fall off a cliff.
6. There’s no incumbent (the last Republican to win statewide, John Leiber, had no incumbent.)
7. None of the Democrats is a moderate or heavyweight. They include a socialist and a guy who looked like a nut on video. As Ron Johnson learned in his last victory, it helps to have a horrible opponent.
8. The Democrats will pour so much money into legislative races that it will pull finances from the governor candidate (and even more so the AG).
9. The legacy media will try to destroy Tiffany, but they don’t have the power they once did, even four years ago. The AP was dropped by a lot of papers (poor Scott Bauer, but good for the GOP). There are fewer legacy reporters doing political coverage. We have the ability to get the truth to far more people. Social media censorship regimes are lifted. They will try to turn him into a caricature, but now they will get pushback.
10. Midterms have higher turnout than Supreme Court races.
11. Did I mention that the Democratic candidates are all goofs?
12. Obviously, no primary (thank you, Josh.) The base is united.
13. No Ben Wikler.
14. He looks like he just left a farm breakfast.
15. He is vetted and squeaky clean.
16. He kept chocolate milk in schools. Just saying.
17. Soaring property taxes (that 400-year increase is memorable).
Challenges
1. The media and left will try to federalize the race.
2. It will depend somewhat on what’s going on with Trump and his economy in September. Which is not predictable.
3. Angry liberal women turn out to vote. Will Trump voters?
4. People want free stuff.
5. He has a lengthy congressional and legislative record to paw through, which is why it can be hard for congressmen to win governorships.
6. Midterms can go to the opposite party of the president in power (just ask Scott Walker… 2018.)
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