Here are 10 interesting findings in the new Marquette poll this week that you might not have heard about.
You’ve probably heard mostly about the topline findings in the new Wisconsin poll; namely that Biden would beat Trump by 2% but would lose to Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley, with Haley being the strongest Republican choice. Republicans have lost the abortion issue and women especially care a lot about it. But Trump is favored for his handling of the economy and is also perceived as stronger on the border and foreign policy, all issues with a lot of currency right now.
However, buried in the crosstabs are some interesting findings that you might not have read about. They show some weakness for Democrats with some of their key constituency groups, providing openings for Trump and/or another Republican nominee.
1. Voters don’t like the idea of redrawing the redistricting maps
The poll shows the Democratic glee for redrawing redistricting maps could backfire on them, especially if the liberal court redraws the maps, forcing everyone’s legislative votes to be essentially invalidated. Most Wisconsinites are not with them. Democrats risk overplaying their hand on this.
Both genders and all age groups except the youngest voters think the current maps should stay in place. Only Democrats like the idea of redrawing them. It’s not popular with independents or Republicans. Every ethnic group opposes redrawing the maps. It’s unpopular everywhere except Madison and Milwaukee.
2. Democrats have lost Hispanics
Hispanics have turned against Biden and Democrats in a big way in this poll.
59% of Hispanics would pick Trump compared to 28% for Biden, with 13 percent undecided.
Only 32% of Hispanics think Evers is doing a good job. 59% do not. Hispanic voters also have a more unfavorable opinion of Tammy Baldwin than a favorable one.
3. Young voters and independents aren’t thrilled with Tammy Baldwin, and neither are voters under 60
U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin is showing some weakness. For example, on favorability ratings, slightly more young people have an unfavorable opinion of her than a favorable one.
She’s also upside down with men and with people ages 30-59. Only elderly people have a more favorable than unfavorable opinion of her.
Independents don’t like her either, with only 28% having a favorable opinion compared to 48% unfavorable. Hispanics don’t like her either. She’s upside down with them too.
4. The “enthusiasm gap” favors Republicans
Everyone knows that it’s not just how people are polling that matters; it’s who gets their voters to the polls. And this time around, at least in this poll, Republicans have a slight edge in the “enthusiasm gap.”
The percentage of people who said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting for president was highest for Republicans with leaners as independents, leaners as partisans, and without leaners. For example, 55% of Republicans were very enthusiastic, compared to 51% of those who lean Republican, 34% of independents, 37% who lean Democratic, and 44% who are Democrats.
Asked another way, 73% of people who are very conservative are very enthusiastic about voting compared to 36% of very liberal people.
5. Almost everyone disapproves of how Biden is doing his job
Biden’s unfavorable ratings are remarkably bad. Everyone except Democrats thinks he’s doing badly. He’s upside down with men and women, with all age groups, with all education levels, and all income levels. Only in the partisan category does he find a group that thinks he’s doing a better job than not – Democrats. Blacks also favor Biden but even with that core Democratic demographic group 31% do not think he’s doing a good job.
He’s even lost people in labor unions,
6. Did we mention? Democratic support among labor is soft
More than half of labor union members polled did not approve of the job Biden is doing.
Labor union respondents have an unfavorable opinion of Tammy Baldwin.
Although this is not true across the board, Democrats are showing some weakness with labor in a variety of categories in this poll.
7. Almost no one thinks the state is on the right track – especially black Wisconsinites – but women don’t blame it on Tony Evers
Almost no one thinks the state is on the right track. That’s true of both genders, all age groups, all education and income levels, and all ethnic groups (blacks were most likely to think the state is on the wrong track.)
Only Democrats think the state is on the right track, and over 40% of them don’t either.
Evers benefits from a huge gender gap. More men don’t approve of how he’s doing his job, but more women do approve. Weirdly, even 12 percent of Republicans like the job Evers is doing.
8. Never Trumpers could sink the presidential election
Never Trumpers seem to be alive and kicking. 10 percent of people who are “very conservative” would vote for Joe Biden over Trump! That’s also true of a combined 15% of people who are Republican or lean Republican.
If Trump is the nominee, the Republican Party and Trump have some work to do to get conservatives/Republicans to not vote for the Democrat. But this also presents an opportunity.
9. Trump has stronger support among Blacks than is normal for a Republican
When leaners are counted, Trump gets 28% of the Black vote. That’s compared to 48% of the white vote and 62% of Hispanics. According to Pew Research Center, only about one-in-ten Black adults identify with or lean toward the Republican Party.
10. No one cares that liberal Janet Protasiewicz talked about her views on issues
Judges aren’t supposed to take stands on issues that might come before the court. Maybe if the question had been asked that exact way, the answer would have been different.
The poll asked, “Should judicial candidates discuss during campaigns issues likely to come before them if elected so voters know what the candidates stand for, or should they avoid talking about such issues in order not to seem to be pre-judging the issues?”
Most voters think they should discuss issues – by very wide margins – and that’s also true of Republicans.
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