Yearly Archives: 2022

(The Center Square) – Pollsters are using phrases like “purely a toss-up,” and “dead-tied” to describe Wisconsin’s marquee political match-ups less than one week before Election Day.

The latest Marquette Law School Poll came out Wednesday. It shows both the race for governor and U.S. Senate tied.

“It’s a two-point [Ron] Johnson lead, 50-48. That’s a tightening from a six-point Johnson lead three weeks ago,” Marquette’s director of polling, Charles Franklin told reporters. “On the governor’s race though we have a dead-tie, 48-48.”

Both races have tightened.

Johnson, who is the incumbent Republican U.S. Senator, had a six-point lead over Mandela Barnes in October’s poll.

“In August we had Barnes up by seven, right after the primary,” Franklin explained. “Then Johnson by one point in early September, then we had him up by six points three weeks ago. Now that race has tightened to two-points.”

Franklin said the race for U.S. Senate is now “purely a toss-up.”

The race between Gov. Tony Evers and Republican Tim Michels has been essentially tied for months.

“In August it was a four-point Evers lead. Then a three point lead. Then, three weeks ago, it was a one-point Evers margain. And now it’s a dead-tie,” Franklin said.

He added that the governor’s polling this year is almost identical to the polling from 2018, which had the race between then-Gov. Scott Walker and candidate Tony Evers.

The poll continues to show Gov. Evers has a negative job approval rating. Pollsters say 47% of voters don’t approve of how he’s handled the job of governor, while 46% do.

Franklin said next week’s elections will likely come down to voter turnout.

Which is where he says Democrats currently have an advantage.

“Ten percent of Democrats have already voted. Three percent of Republicans have,” Franklin noted. “It may well be that Republicans make up that gap on Election Day, or before Election Day. It’s possible that Democrats have really managed to mobilize their voters and managed to take advantage of early voting.”

Election Day is next Tuesday.

(The Center Square) – A new report says Wisconsin shouldn’t have to pay $240 million if a new casino opens in Kenosha.

The report from the Legislative Reference Bureau says the cost to the state is not as big under the latest gambling compact with the Forest County Potawatomi as it was under the last.

“The financial risk to the state is not as great as during the 2013-15 deliberations. Since Gov. Walker rejected the Kenosha casino, the state agreed to a 2018 compact amendment with the Potawatomi that significantly reduces the state’s liability if a casino opens between 30 and 50 miles from the tribe’s Milwaukee casino,” the report states

The old agreement with the tribe could have cost Wisconsin $243 million in compensation if a new casino opened within 50 miles of the tribe’s Milwaukee casino.

“Most significantly, the 2018 amendment provides mitigation for revenue losses only on a going-forward basis,” the LRB analysis said. “In other words, unlike in the 2014 arbitrated amendment, the state would not have to refund the tribe for any of the tribe’s past payments to the state,” the report notes.

The LRB report notes that while the Potawatomi Tribe could still withhold payments from the state if a Kensoha casino opens, those withholdings are capped at $250 million, and end when the 2018 gambling combat expires in 2031.

The Menominee tribe earlier this year announced that it is working with Hard Rock International, which is owned by the Seminole Tribe, to open a new casino in the town of Bristol.

“One of the stated reasons mentioned in rejecting the Menominee’s Kenosha casino project was putting the state at risk for repaying millions of dollars,” Sen. Bob Wirch, D-Somers, said. “With this new examination of the amendment approved between former Gov. Walker and the Potawatomi, there is significantly less financial risk to the state in approving a Kenosha casino. Now, there are even more reasons to support the Menominee’s effort to team up with Hard Rock International to develop and build a destination entertainment center and casino in Kenosha.”

Menominee chairman Ronald Corn Sr. said the casino will be a destination for visitors, but a lifeline for his tribe.

"Our goal for this major economic development and tourism destination project is to invest in improving and expanding access for our tribal members to health care and education and devote more resources to fighting poverty, hunger, and unemployment on our reservation,” Corn said in a statement.

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(The Center Square) – Another judge has ruled that absentee ballots must be properly – and completely – filled-out in order to be counted on Election Day in Wisconsin.

Dane County Judge Nia Trammell on Wednesday refused to issue a temporary restraining order that would have stopped local election clerks from rejecting incomplete absentee ballots.

"I believe that to issue a temporary injunction would upend the status quo, not preserve it," said Trammell. "I also believe that the fact that the election is all but two weeks away lends some credence to the argument raised by [the Wisconsin Election Commission] and the Legislature that any decision issued by the court granting the temporary injunction would frustrate the electoral process by causing confusion."

The issue continues to be absentee ballot witness addresses.

The League of Women Voters of Wisconsin wanted a judge to give clerks some wiggle room on those addresses.

State law is clear that voters and their witnesses must put down their full address on any absentee ballots.

The Wisconsin Elections Commission had allowed clerks to fill-in any missing information, but a Waukesha County judge ended that with his ruling earlier this fall.

The Elections Commission and the legislature argued on the same side in the League of Women Voters’ case.

Judge Trammell said even if she did step in, the Elections Commission and the Legislature would likely appeal. Which would only cause more confusion for clerks who are already receiving absentee ballots.

"And if that is the case, then there is a risk that such voters' absentee ballots may not be counted for the upcoming election," Trammell added.

Early voting is underway in Wisconsin. The Elections Commission said, as of Wednesday, voters had requested 510,699 absentee ballots. The Commission said 305,453 of those ballots have been returned.

No one is saying or guessing how many have incomplete addresses.

Some law enforcement groups and police experts are blaming rising violent crime on a “toxic trio,” pointing the finger at anti-police rhetoric, lax prosecutors and the “defund the police” movement.

“Defaming and defunding police has cops running for exits, as violence surges and we need them now more than ever,” said Jason Johnson, president of the Law Enforcement Legal Defense Fund. “This should be a wake-up call."

The comments come after recently released FBI crime statistics showed homicides increased in 2021, despite the fact that 2020 was a record-high year. Rape also increased, and vehicle thefts have risen more than 20% since 2019. Murder is up nearly 40% since 2019, the most significant increase since crime statistics of this kind have been tracked.

"This report confirms there are two inextricably like public safety crises happening,” Johnson said. “Crime, especially murder, has risen precipitously since the summer of 2020 while law enforcement has been demoralized, debilitated, and in some cases defunded. Homicides are up almost 40% since 2019, while most large police departments are hemorrhaging officers.”

Recent polling shows crime is a top issue for voters. An ABC News/Washington Post poll released last month showed that 69% named crime as a “highly important” issue, more than abortion, immigration or climate change. At the same time, voters favor Republicans’ handling of crime by 14 points, according to the poll.

Cully Stimson, a former prosecutor and legal expert at the Heritage Foundation, said that “this narrative that crime rose as a result of the pandemic is just baloney.”

“It’s important to put this in the bigger context,” he said. “The last crime spike in our country ended 1992, 93 and since then we have had a 30-year serious decline in violent crimes and crime in general. And because incarceration always trails behind crime rates, either rising or falling, incarceration rates have been dropping dramatically since 2007, 2008.”

Stimson pointed to a recent shift fueled largely by discouraging police and empowering “rogue prosecutors” who are much more lax, often refusing to prosecute entire categories of crimes.

“But what we’ve seen since about 2015 … two things started happening,” Stimson said. “The first, [George] Soros bought-and-paid-for prosecutor Kim Foxx was elected in Chicago and then you saw after the George Floyd murder and other notorious police-involved shootings crime in those cities start to go up. And every major city that has elected a Soros bought-and-paid-for rogue prosecutor, crime has exploded. And not coincidentally, those cities are often the same cities … are also ‘defund the police’ cities."

Stimson pointed to the "toxic trio."

"So what I’ve called this is the toxic trio of rogue prosecutor, defund the police and demoralize the police because in some instances they don’t defund police, they only threaten to defund the police or discredit the police," he said. "And when city officials or public officials don’t have the backs of the police, the criminal element does feel emboldened…”

Biden has pushed back on claims that Democratic policies have fueled rising crime, arguing Republicans are the ones who want to defund police, though that claim was met with widespread pushback. The “Defund the Police” message has been carried almost entirely by Democratic leaders at the federal and local levels.

The FBI crime data this year is less reliable than in years past because it omits multiple major cities as they transition to a new reporting system.

The long-awaited debate between Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Dr. Mehmet Oz for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seat showed the candidates attempting to show their fitness for office amid health scares and personal attacks.

The Tuesday night debate was the most significant platform that Democrat Fetterman has appeared in and fielded public questions since suffering a stroke in May. During the debate, he used closed captioning technology to understand what was being said due to auditory processing issues. He didn’t have trouble processing the questions and Oz’s statements, but did stumble through most of his responses.

Nevertheless, he positioned himself as a strong supporter of President Joe Biden who stands up for forgotten Pennsylvanians. Republican Oz portrayed himself as the embodiment of the American Dream and opportunity who wants to unite Americans and push for change.

The candidates are vying for the seat held by Republican Pat Toomey, who decided not to seek reelection. The Senate is a 50-50 split tipped in favor of Democrats by the West Wing, and national attention has riveted on this dead-heat race in the battle for control of Congress. Just prior to the primary, as Oz seemed to gain the upper hand for winning the GOP nomination, former President Donald Trump – a lightning rod within the party – gave an endorsement.

“I’m running to serve Pennsylvania, he's running to use Pennsylvania,” Fetterman said in his opening statement, and accused Oz of lying about his past political views. “This campaign to me is about fighting for everyone in Pennsylvania that ever got knocked down and needs to get back up, and fighting for all forgotten communities all across Pennsylvania.”

Oz responded by calling for more bipartisan efforts.

“Washington keeps getting it wrong with extreme positions. I want to bring civility, balance, all the things that you want to see because you’ve been telling it to me on the campaign trail,” Oz said. “By doing that, we can bring us together in a way that has not been done of late – Democrats, Republicans talking to each other. John Fetterman takes everything to an extreme, and those extreme positions hurt us all.”

Much of the debate focused on the economy, and the first question was about how the candidates planned to improve it. Oz talked of cutting 4% of the federal budget he said went toward waste and fraud, and warned of Fetterman raising taxes.

“I can make the difficult decisions, as you do in the operating room as a surgeon, I’ll make them cutting our budget as well to make sure we don’t have to raise taxes on a population already desperately in pain from the high inflation rate,” Oz said.

Fetterman, when asked about cutting spending, focused on inflation.

“We need to fight about inflation right now because it’s a tax on working families,” Fetterman said. “We must push back against corporate greed, we must make sure we’re also pushing back against price gouging as well, too. We also need to be able to make more in Pennsylvania and make more in America.”

On whether to suspend the federal gas tax, Oz was more hesitant.

“I’m supportive of reducing taxes, but we want to be thoughtful about the long-term game plan to get gas taxes down and, frankly, all energy prices down,” he said. “What we have to do is ensure that we don’t have increased inflation, and the best way to do that is reduce gas prices.”

“He would never make that choice to fight for families here in Pennsylvania,” Fetterman said. “He has never been able to stand up for working families.”

He then argued inflation boosted corporate profits.

“Inflation has hurt Americans and Pennsylvania's families, and it has given the oil companies record profits,” Fetterman said.

Moderators asked questions on a variety of topics: abortion, the minimum wage, immigration, crime, and gun control. But the economy was a recurring theme.

Oz positioned himself as having a plan to “unleash energy” in the state.

“We have one of the richest energy states in the country. I believe if we can unleash the energy beneath our feet here in Pennsylvania, there’d be plenty of money to go around,” Oz said. “We’d have increased wages, more reason for students to take vocational classes to be able to learn trades, which I’m strongly supportive of. We’d also be able to pipe that gas, improve our economy, and reduce inflation.”

Closely tied to energy, both candidates were questioned about their past statements on fracking and how they’ve changed. Oz wrote in 2014 about health concerns related to fracking and now supports it, while Fetterman stated in a 2018 interview that he never supported fracking and now supports it.

Oz said he has been “very consistent” in his support for fracking and said using the technology is safe.

“It is a lifeline for this commonwealth to build wealth ... if we unleashed energy in Pennsylvania, it’d benefit everybody,” he said.

Fetterman’s current views were similar to Oz.

“I absolutely support fracking,” he said. “I believe that we need independence with energy and I believe I’ve walked that line my entire career.”

When his past statements opposed to fracking were mentioned, Fetterman reiterated that “I do support fracking.”

Both candidates also voiced their support for vocational education and encouraging more young people to pursue a trade.

In their closing statements, Fetterman and Oz emphasized their values.

“I’ve heard your problems,” Oz said. “None of this has to happen, this is all very addressable.

"Ask yourself this and others in your family: Are you unhappy with where America is headed? I am, and if you are as well, then I’m the candidate for change. I’m a living embodiment of the American Dream, I believe we’re the land of opportunity, the land of plenty.”

Fetterman said, “My campaign is all about fighting for anyone in Pennsylvania that ever got knocked down that had to get back up again. I’m also fighting for any forgotten community all across Pennsylvania that ever got knocked down and had to get back up. I’ve made my entire career (dedicated) to those kinds of pursuits. I believe it’s about serving Pennsylvania, not about using Pennsylvania for their own interests.”

(The Center Square) – Milwaukee’s get-out-the-vote partnership with a liberal/progressive firm is not technically against the law, so a judge is not going to stop it.

Milwaukee County Judge Gwendolyn Connolly on Friday refused to grant the Republican Party of Wisconsin a temporary restraining order against Milwaukee Votes 2022, the city-backed privately funded get-out-the-vote effort with GPS Impact.

“In this case, the plaintiffs’ complaint is entirely devoid of any allegations that the defendants engaged in conduct that resulted in the support of any particular candidate or party,” the judge wrote in her ruling.

The Republican Party said GPS Impact is a Democratic operation that brags about winning for Democrats in predominantly Republican states.

But the judge said Wisconsin’s ban on political activity in local government doesn’t apply to Milwaukee’s mayor.

“Unlike the public misconduct statute, which governs the conduct of ‘public officers’ and ‘public employees,’ the Political Activity Policy applies only to ‘employees’ of the municipality,” the judge stated. “The [city of Milwaukee] argues that Mayor Johnson is not an ‘employee’ within the meaning of the policy because he is an elected official. The Court agrees."

Mayor Johnson publicly backed Milwaukee Votes 2022 last month, but his office quickly walked-back the idea that any taxpayer money is being used to pay for the get out the vote effort.

It remains unclear just who is paying GPS Impact, or what it is that they are doing.

Republicans in the state said the get-out-the-vote effort is Zuckerbucks 2.0 because it uses outside money to work with a Democratic city to encourage Democratic voters to cast a ballot, much like Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg did throughout the country during the 2020 national election.

The judge pointed to the arguments against the original Zuckerbucks grants to note that outside money is not technically illegal in Wisconsin’s election operations.

"They claimed that the [2020] grant money was used as part of an overall scheme that used municipalities ‘to facilitate increased in-person and absentee voting in targeted populations through ‘partnerships’ with other non-government entities or individuals,’ in violation of state law,” the judge added. “The Wisconsin Elections Commission disagreed, finding no statutory language that would prohibit municipal clerks from using private grant money or working with outside consultants in the performance of their duties. The [Elections Commission]noted that the legislature’s failed attempt to introduce two bills that would have prohibited any official from ‘apply[ing] for or accept[ing] any donation or grant of private resources . . . for purposes of election administration.’ According to the [Elections Commission, the introduction of these bills ‘demonstrate[d] the absence, in existing law, of any prohibition on the acceptance of private grant money or the use of outside consultants.’"

Wisconsin Republican Party spokesman Chad Doran said the party continues to strongly object to the city “coordinating” with third-party groups., and will continue to pursue the case.