Yearly Archives: 2023

(The Center Square) – The top Republican in the Wisconsin Assembly says he is encouraged by the University of Wisconsin’s plan to focus on in-demand degrees, but it's not enough to move him off his block of the university's pay raises.

Speaker Robin Vos told reporters at the Capitol that without an agreement to pull back on diversity, equity and inclusion spending there won’t be any movement on raises for university workers.

“Hopefully, once we're able to conclude some kind of a deal on changing how we deal with diversity, equity, inclusion will be able to have that come up,” Vos said. “We have the engineering building, and we have the pay raises. They're all kind of part of one big package. So, my hope is that that is just one of many that can happen once we have an agreement.”

Republican lawmakers put a hold on those raises last month.

That came after Vos ordered a $32 million cut to the university’s budget over DEI. Vos says the school spends about $32 million a year on nearly 200 DEI administrators.

“Just since 2017, almost 1,700 new positions have been created at the university, very few of which are actually focusing on students or teaching,” Vos explained. “So, the goal would be to try to make sure they go back and have a focus on educating students, not indoctrinating and really focusing on having more kids get access to faculty as opposed to just people who are telling them what to think and how to act.”

The university last week announced plans to spend $32 million on in-demand degrees like engineering, math and science.

“This plan is exactly what the Legislature is looking for – a concentrated emphasis on adding more graduates to the workforce in key areas,” University President Jay Rothman said. “I would hope everyone would agree that this is in the best interest of the state of Wisconsin.”

Vos has said he continues to talk with university leaders and says he is optimistic about finding an agreement.

The battle over DEI funding at the university is growing in the meantime.

Vos has said he won't talk about a new UW Madison engineering building until there’s agreement on DEI.

Gov. Tony Evers sued Vos and the Republican-controlled legislature for blocking those pay raises because of the DEI spat. The governor has asked the state supreme Court to take up the case.

A federal judge on Friday denied former President Donald Trump's motion to delay his classified documents trial until after the 2024 presidential election.

Trump, 77, the frontrunner for the GOP nomination to challenge incumbent President Joe Biden, has pleaded not guilty to 40 felony counts that allege he kept sensitive military documents, shared them with people who didn't have security clearance, and tried to thwart the government's attempts to get them back.

Trump and his attorneys have argued that prosecutors have proposed an unrealistic schedule for what's expected to be a complex case, especially in light of Trump's pending criminal charges in Washington D.C., Georgia and New York.

U.S. District Court Judge Aileen Cannon agreed Friday to push back some pre-trial deadlines, but said it was "premature" to postpone the trial date. The trial is set to start in May 2024, right in the middle of the Republican presidential primary calendar. The judge said she will consider the issue again at a conference set to take place on March 1.

"First, and most significantly, the quantity of discovery in this case remains exceedingly voluminous, even more so than initially thought," Cannon wrote in her order. "To be sure, the Special Counsel has taken various steps to produce discovery on a regular basis. But even with these efforts, discovery has increased sizably from initial estimates."

The case involves about 1.3 million pages of unclassified discovery, 60 terabytes of closed circuit television footage, and 5,500 pages of classified discovery.

Cannon also cited other issues, including the complexity of the case, significant disagreements between defense attorneys and prosecutors and Trump's other pending trials.

"The Court cannot ignore the realities of pretrial and trial schedules in two other criminal matters," she noted, citing the federal case in Washington D.C., where Trump stands accused of trying to interfere with the transfer of power after the 2020 election, and the New York hush money case.

(The Center Square) – Few of the election reforms Wisconsin Republicans plan to pass will likely get the governor’s signature.

The State Assembly late Thursday approved nearly a dozen or so pieces of legislation that deal with how people vote and how elections are run in the state.

“There's no way that Wisconsin should experience what it did in 2020 in 2024,” Rep. Scott Krug, R-Nekoosa, said.

Krug, who is the chairman of the Assembly Committee on Campaigns and Elections said the Republican election reforms either look to close loopholes exposed during the 2020 election or prevent new loopholes from being exploited.

“It's been a great effort on everybody's part to try to make sure that election administration is changed permanently in the state of Wisconsin,” Krug said.

Krug said that includes Democratic support for a few ideas, including a plan that would send voters a text message when they request and return their absentee ballots and the plan to allow local election clerks to count absentee ballots on the Monday before election day.

“Why do we wait until Tuesday night to process absentee ballots,” Rep. Ron Tusler, R-Harrison, asked. “Our clerks can process those ballots just as well on Monday, and our observers can observe those ballots being processed better during daylight hours during normal business hours than in the middle of the night on Tuesday night.”

Tusler’s plan would have central count locations, like in Milwaukee, start the process of counting absentee ballots ahead of time. Milwaukee’s election clerk has said in the past they could have all of their absentee ballots counted on the Monday before election day.

“When we go to bed on election night, we should have a solid, unofficial result of the results of the election,” Tusler said.

A spokesman for Gov. Tony Evers on Thursday said the governor will sign Tusler’s early vote count legislation.

The Assembly also passed three proposed constitutional amendments that cleared the Senate earlier this week.

They deal with voter ID, who can vote in Wisconsin elections and a ban on the use of private outside money.

Rep. Tyler August, R-Lake Geneva, said Republicans are pushing those amendments to voters as a way to “avoid Gov. Evers’ veto pen.”

The voter eligibility and private money amendments will go to voters next fall.

(The Center Square) – One of Wisconsin’s congressmen is warning about a potential Chinese strategy to corner the market on electric cars.

Congressman Mike Gallagher and other members of the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party this week sent a letter to the U.S. ambassador warning China may flood the U.S. market with electric vehicles.

“We are concerned by how the People’s Republic of China is preparing to flood the United States and global markets with automobiles, particularly electric vehicles, propped up by massive subsidies and long-standing localization and other discriminatory policies employed by the PRC,” Gallagher and the Select Committee wrote in the letter. “We request that the Office of the United States Trade Representative consider whether to launch a new Section 301 investigation into these practices and the harm they pose to the American automotive industry and American workers and what actions should be taken to counter the PRC’s industrial strategy to dominate the global automobile market.”

Gallagher has been a pointed critic of the Chinese Communist Party for years, so his focus on Chinese EVs is not out of character.

His letter is to United States Trade Representative, Ambassador Katherine Tai.

“For more than a decade, the PRC has given its homegrown automakers an unfair competitive advantage, providing them with discriminatory government subsidies and preferential market access policies, while pressuring foreign automotive firms to localize and transfer their core technologies to PRC firms. While the PRC strategy is not new, the threat this long-standing push now poses to U.S. and global auto markets is unmistakable,” the letter continued.

Gallagher said the U.S. needs to continue tariffs on Chinese EVs and add more restrictions on the country’s automakers.

“The United States has thus far been spared by a surge of PRC vehicles because PRC vehicles are ineligible for tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act and because of the additional 25 percent tariffs on PRC-imported vehicles put in place under Section 301 in 2018,” Gallagher’s letter adds. “We applaud the Biden Administration for maintaining these tariffs on PRC automobiles. It is critical that tariffs on PRC automobiles not only be maintained but also increased to stem the expected surge in PRC imports. If PRC automakers are able to withstand sustained losses with the support of the PRC government, it is only a matter of time before PRC manufacturers will be able to absorb the additional 25% tariff on PRC vehicles to access the U.S. market.”

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., announced Thursday he would not run for reelection for his Senate seat but will instead travel the country to see if there is an appetite for a movement made up of the political middle to "take back America."

“After months of deliberation and long conversation with my family, I believe in my heart of hearts that I have accomplished what I set out to do for West Virginia,” Manchin said in a video announcement on X, formerly known as Twitter. “I have made one of the toughest decisions of my life and decided that I will not be running for election to United States Senate.

“But what I will be doing is traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together,” he added.

Manchin, who is known as one of the most moderate Democrats in the Senate, sparked rumors with his announcement that he was feeling out a possible presidential run.

“The growing divide between Democrats and Republicans is paralyzing Congress and worsening our nations problems,” Manchin said. “The majority of Americans are just plain worn out. Our economy is not working for many Americans, from the rising cost of food and fuel and everything in between.”

Manchin also spoke about the “border crisis” and the illegal drugs entering the U.S., the soaring national debt and public safety. He also addressed the need to avoid being pulled into the overseas wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

“I know our country isn’t as divided as Washington would like us to believe,” Manchin said. “We share common values of family, freedom, democracy, dignity and a belief that together we can overcome any challenge. We need to take back America and not let this divisive hatred further pull us apart. Public service has and continues to drive me everyday.”

The U.S. Census Bureau is under fire for embracing progressive ideology around gender and sexuality and pushing for taxpayer dollars to fund it.

U.S. Sens. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and JD Vance, R-Ohio, sent a letter to the U.S. Census Bureau Director Robert Santos calling on him to rescind its plan to incorporate a gender identity and sexuality questions to the American Community Survey, which goes to more than 3.5 million Americans each year.

The Census Bureau proposed change in the federal register says the survey would ask about both someone’s sex “assigned at birth” as well as asking for someone’s “current gender.” That question would give the options of “Male, Female, Transgender, Nonbinary,” and “This person uses a different term” with an option to fill in the blank.

The question would only go to respondents that are at least 15 years old.

In its fiscal year 2023 budget request to Congress, the Census Bureau requested $10 million to study how best to word a question for the survey asking Americans about their gender identity.

“One such emerging need of our Nation is to improve the measurement of sexual orientation and gender identity (SOGI) population,” the budget request said. “Improving how we collect data about sexual and gender minority (SGM) populations is a critical step in producing accurate data.”

The Senators argue that this could hurt the agency’s credibility in the eyes of the American people.

“Biology determines gender, not subjective belief, and the bureau should not jeopardize the legitimacy of crucial statistical information by endorsing unscientific and untrue concepts like gender identity,” the letter said. “For generations, the American people have looked to the U.S. Census as an unbiased, authoritative source describing the objective reality of life in America. It is not worth sacrificing this trust to advance controversial social ideas through government surveys.”

The Bureau’s budget request also suggests changes could be coming to questions about race. The federal group said in its budget request it wants to innovate “for new questions relating to sexual orientation, gender identity, and intersexuality and/or potential modifications to the race and ethnicity questions.”

Mike Gonzalez, an expert at the Heritage Foundation, blasted the federal government’s move on this issue, saying it is pushing a political narrative.

“The Census Bureau has been completely co-opted into the grievance-mongering industry, providing it with the data the industry needs to push the ‘oppressor/oppressed’ narrative,” Gonzalez told The Center Square. “What’s more, this information relates to synthetic categories that the Census took a lead in creating in the first place! Among these are faux ethnic groups like Hispanics or Asian-Americans, created in 1977. The Census now wants to add categories based on gender identity, in a question that will be asked of children as young as 15.

“It’s time for the administrative state to stop contributing to the division of our country into identity groups,” Gonzalez added.

The Census Bureau did not respond to a request for comment.

(The Center Square) – The plan to spend taxpayer dollars on the Milwaukee Brewers’ ballpark may still be short of votes at the Wisconsin Capitol.

A number of Republican senators on Wednesday criticized the latest version of the plan.

"While the amendment makes some improvements to the bill, it does not meet the expectations of my constituents. The Brewers' contribution falls short of their equity stake, and the burden on taxpayers is too high for me to support it,” Sen Julian Bradley, R-Franklin, said after a hearing on the proposal.

The improvement Bradley noted includes a new $2 non-Brewer game ticket tax that is expected to raise up to $500,000 a year and lower Wisconsin’s contributions to $377 million over the life of the deal. Originally, the state was expected to kick in $411 million.

The Brewers would also pay an extra $10 million in rent over the 27-years that a new lease would run.

Bradley continues to say that’s not enough.

“It's clear that my constituents would welcome a deal but only if each side contributes their fair share,” he added.

Sen. Steve Nass, R-Whitewater, continues to be the biggest Republican critic of the proposed American Family Field funding plan.

“The Brewers’ stadium action today in a Senate committee provides the clearest proof yet that the uniparty system that has corrupted Washington D.C. is now decaying the halls of the Wisconsin Capitol,” Nass said in a statement. “Today’s Senate committee action does nothing to benefit taxpayers and is purely political theatrics to make it appear this bad deal has been improved.”

The State Assembly approved the Brewer ballpark package back in October, and Gov. Tony Evers has said he and leaders in Milwaukee are on board.

Senate Majority Leader Devin LeMahieu, however, has said he does not have the 17 votes needed to pass the ballpark package as is.

Evers has said he’s convinced a few Democratic senators to vote yes, but he’s not said just how many.

The state, through the Southeast Wisconsin Professional Baseball Park District, owns American Family Field. The ballpark opened in 2001, and both the Brewers and Major League Baseball say it needs updates and refurbishments. The Brewers’ current lease runs through 2030. The new deal would keep the team in Milwaukee through 2050.

Even with the uncertainty over the ballpark funding plan’s future, LeMahieu has said he’d like to see the plan come up for a vote in the Senate next week.

(The Center Square) – Wisconsin voters will get two questions about election integrity next fall.

The State Senate approved proposed constitutional amendments that would clarify that only U.S. citizens 18 years old and older can vote in the stat, and would ban the use of so-called outside private money in Wisconsin elections.

Senators also approved a third question as well that would enshrine voter ID into the state constitution, but that has to be voted on again next year before it can go to voters.

“These amendments are common sense solutions that help to strengthen the integrity of our elections,” Sen. Duey Stroebel, R-Cedarburg, said.

SJR 71 will ensure only U.S. citizens who are 18 or older and eligible to vote can vote in Wisconsin’s elections. And it prohibits state and local governments from accepting private grants, like the those that came from Mark Zuckerberg in 2020, for the public administration of elections.

“Wisconsin received over $10 million in unaccountable grants from a group funded by out-of-state tech billionaire Mark Zuckerberg to oversee elections administration, a job that is the responsibility of local government. Twenty-seven other states, across the political spectrum, have taken steps to ban ‘Zuckerbucks.’ The administration of our elections is something that we should all take seriously, and it is not a job that we can outsource to unaccountable private groups,” Stoebel said.

State Sen. Mary Felzkowski, R-Tomahawk, said all three questions are not about Republicans or Democrats. She said they are about restoring confidence in Wisconsin’s electoral process.

“Our elections are sacred, and they shouldn’t be funded by third-parties. These elections are also for the citizens of our great nation and state, and we should only have citizens voting in them,” Felzkowski said.

The Senate approved the amendments on a 21-10 vote.

That’s the same vote count that Senators used to approve a fourth proposed constitutional amendment that would keep churches and other houses of worship open in the next pandemic.

Republican 2024 presidential candidates will gather Wednesday night in Miami to duke it out as the primary season continues.

The Republican National Committee released a full list of candidates who meet the donor and support criteria and who are expected to debate tonight:

Former New Jersey Governor Chris ChristieFlorida Governor Ron DeSantisFormer South Carolina Governor and Ambassador Nikki HaleyBusinessman Vivek RamaswamySenator Tim Scott, R-S.C.

The list of candidates has narrowed in recent weeks as candidates dropped out after failing to gain momentum. The biggest dropout among them was Vice President Mike Pence, who stepped out of the race at the end of October saying “it is not my time.”

Notably, former President Donald Trump will skip the debate and hold a rally in Hialeah, a Florida city adjacent to Miami and just minutes from the GOP debate.

Trump has said the voters know who he is and that he should not have to debate opponents so far behind him in the polls.

The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll, conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights, shows Trump is right about his support. Even with nearly 100 criminal indictments and skipping the debates, Trump has more support than all his challengers combined.

The survey of 2,605 voters includes 1,035 Republicans, 1,074 Democrats, and 496 true Independents, and is among the most comprehensive surveys in the nation.

That poll surveyed likely Republican voters about their pick for president and found that Trump has 59% support.

DeSantis is in second place with 13% support and Haley, a former ambassador and governor, comes in third with 9% support.

Ramaswamy, who has made headlines at the previous debates, came in fourth with 7% support.

Scott, R-S.C., and Christie are tied at 2% support. Those candidates will likely be looking to land big shots to save their campaigns, though political analysts speculate that some candidates like Scott could be angling for a vice president selection.

Key issues expected to come up at the debate are the economy and the respective wars between Ukraine and Russia as well as Israel and the terrorist group Hamas.

The debate will be hosted by NBC News partnered with Salem Radio Network, the Republican Jewish Coalition, and Rumble, according to the RNC.

The GOP debate will air at 8 p.m. Wednesday.

“We are looking forward to our third debate in Miami, a welcome opportunity for our candidates to showcase our winning conservative agenda to the American people,” RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said in a statement. “We are especially honored to be the first political party to partner with a Jewish organization for a debate in our partnership with the Republican Jewish Coalition, and our candidates will reaffirm the Republican Party’s unwavering support of Israel and the Jewish community on the stage Wednesday night.”

(The Center Square) – The top Republican in the Wisconsin Assembly is not saying there will never be a vote to impeach the state’s elections chief, but there won’t be a vote anytime soon.

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos told reporters at the Capitol on Tuesday there’s not enough support among Republicans to call for a vote to oust Meagan Wolfe as Wisconsin Elections Commission administrator.

“We had a brief discussion about it, and we are nowhere near a consensus,” Vos said.

A handful of Republican lawmakers are demanding Vos call for an impeachment vote.

They want Wolfe out for how she handled the 2020 election, and how she has responded to Republican questions about her job performance since then.

Part of the GOP demands include a threat to oust Vos if he doesn’t act.

State Rep. Janel Brandtjen, R-Menonomnee Falls, on Monday accused Vos of protecting Wolfe.

“Why is Speaker Vos so committed to safeguarding Wolfe that he is willing to misrepresent the legislature's authority and the Constitution to retain her in her position? Wolfe has violated the law, not just in the Teigen case ruled upon by the Wisconsin Supreme Court, but also in her mismanagement of elections, which could constitute legitimate grounds for her removal under the Constitution,” Brandtjken said.

“We need to move on. The election in 2024 should not be about what occurred in 2020,” Vos said. “I think we need to move forward and talk about the issues that matter to most Wisconsinites. And that is not, for most people, obsessing about Meagan Wolfe.”

Republican lawmakers launched two investigations into how Wolke and the Elections Commission handled ballot drop boxes, indefinitely confined voters, millions spent in the state by the Mark Zuckerberg-backed Center for Tech and Civic Life and dozens of other questions.

Neither of those investigations yielded many answers.

Wisconsin’s senate president has also called for Wolfe’s impeachment, saying she has come close to corrupt conduct in office. That call, too, has stalled.

There was also a vote in the Senate to fire Wolfe, claiming her appointment had run out. Though Senate leaders last month admitted that vote was mostly symbolic.

Vos said he cannot predict what will happen in the future but said he does not see the Assembly taking a vote on Wolfe’s future anytime soon.

(The Center Square) – Tuesday was a day for Republicans at the Wisconsin Capitol to show their frustrations with the University of Wisconsin.

The State Assembly was scheduled to vote on a series of plans that would force changes upon the Universities of Wisconsin.

The biggest proposed change would create a punishment for UW campuses that do not respect the free speech rights of students – particularly conservative students, according to Rep. Amanda Nedweski, R-Pleasant Prairie.

“The UW Student Free Speech survey results tell us more and more that students, particularly those with conservative viewpoints, choose to self-censor rather than participate in meaningful discussion and debate,” Nedweski said. “Many are choosing not to attend UW schools at all.”

Her plan, AB 553, would impose a two-year tuition freeze at any UW campus that violates the new free speech policy twice within five years.

Another Republican proposal, AB 554, would end the use of race as a factor at all UW schools.

Rep. Nik Rettinger, R-Mukwonago, said the plan simply complies with the recent Supreme Court decision that struck down race-based admissions at colleges across the country.

“We are looking to shift criteria away from race, which is not only just morally wrong to continue to divide society that way, I know it's been a great discussion legislature has been having,” Rettinger said. “[We want] a new disadvantage definition to ensure that those who are in true economic need are still able to receive aid under these programs.”

Neither of the plans are expected to become law. Democrats at the Capitol, and Gov. Tony Evers are opposed to both.

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos also talked about the university, and the ongoing fight over raises for UW workers and the split over diversity, equity, and inclusion funding.

“The legislature is not going to stand behind the idea that we can have a system that focuses on division, indoctrination and exclusion at the expense of the rest of the state,” Vos added. “So hopefully we'll find an answer. I'm an optimist. I think we've had good discussions, but we are not going to move forward until we have a consensus that generates all the way through.”

Evers sued Vos and the Republican-controlled legislature over the decision to withhold UW raises as part of the spat over diversity, equity and inclusion.

The University on Monday introduced a plan that would spend more on STEM and in-demand degrees, like Vos has asked for. But that plan doesn’t do anything about the university’s DEI spending.

The federal government coordinated with an array of entities to censor Americans’ speech online, a newly released report from the Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government shows.

In particular, the report shows that the Department of Homeland Security worked with Stanford and the Global Engagement Center, which works across agencies but sits under the State Department to create a streamlined process for identifying and censoring posts.

These groups formed the Election Integrity Partnership, which the report shows worked to censor and limit certain posts going into the 2020 presidential election. The report argues the federal government was “heavy handed” with universities and social media companies and censored conservative viewpoints far more often than liberal points of view under the guise of combating disinformation.

“Created in the summer of 2020 ‘at the request’ of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), the EIP provided a way for the federal government to launder its censorship activities in hopes of bypassing both the First Amendment and public scrutiny,” the report said.

The report lays out how EIP analysts searched social media sites for undesirable content.

From the report:

The EIP’s misinformation “analysts” next scoured the internet for additional examples for censorship. If the submitted report flagged a Facebook post, for example, the EIP analysts searched for similar content on Twitter, YouTube, TikTok, Reddit, and other major social media platforms. Once all of the offending links were compiled, the EIP sent the most significant ones directly to Big Tech with specific recommendations on how the social media platforms should censor the posts, such as reducing the posts’ “discoverability,” “suspending [an account’s] ability to continue tweeting for 12 hours,” “monitoring if any of the tagged influencer accounts retweet” a particular user, and, of course, removing thousands of Americans’ posts.

This report is the latest in a series of reports, including the “Twitter Files,” which show the federal government pressured private and nonprofit organizations to quiet certain viewpoints.

Much of this push for censorship was fueled by concerns that former President Donald Trump was propelled to the White House by misleading news and content on social media sites.

U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., sparked headlines last month when he said that Twitter was an “FBI subsidiary” before billionaire Elon Musk took over. Johnson raised concerns again after this latest report.

U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., pointed to the report as well, pushing for his legislation, the Free Speech Protection Act.

Paul said that under this legislation, which he co-wrote with Jordan, the government “will be stripped of its ability to shroud its actions in secrecy and infringe upon the First Amendment rights of the American people.”

This latest report includes documents obtained from Standard that show examples of the censorship and the coordination between federal and private entities.

“The American people deserve to know if they were targeted by their own government and so-called ‘disinformation’ experts,” U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, who leads the weaponization committee, wrote on X.

Former Ambassador and Gov. Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis both perform better against President Joe Biden in a hypothetical general election matchup than former President Donald Trump, according to The Center Square Voters' Voice poll.

Conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights, the poll found that in a hypothetical general election head-to-head faceoff, Biden would have 48% support among likely voters compared to Trump’s 44%. However, DeSantis does better in the same faceoff, with Biden getting 44% support compared to DeSantis' 47% support.

Haley also beats Biden in the same matchup with 44% support compared to Biden’s 41% support.

Both Haley's and DeSantis' leads are within the poll's 1.96% margin of error.

"This is a fascinating finding in here and there are a couple of things that are worth highlighting here," David Byler, chief of research at Noble Predictive Insights, told The Center Square. "Haley and DeSantis have pitched themselves as stronger general election candidates than Trump. That is explicit and implicit in their campaign messaging.

"They say that Trump might lose again or that Trump has baggage or that Trump won't debate because I'm better on the issues," Byler added. "You name it. What they are talking about is electability. So this poll in some ways validates Haley and DeSantis' argument.”

The poll of 2,605 voters includes 1,035 Republicans, 1,074 Democrats, and 496 true Independents, and is among the most comprehensive in the country.

The poll comes ahead of the third Republican primary debate in Miami on Wednesday. Trump is not expected to participate, and despite his large lead, Trump’s legal issues could sink his campaign and make second place more important than ever.

Notably, the poll found that Haley is better able to pull Democrats and Independent voters to her side than DeSantis or Trump.

“What you’ll notice is among true Independents, Biden and Trump are tied, but among true Independents you have a very slight lead for Ron DeSantis, just two points, but every bit counts,” Byler told The Center Square. “You have a sizeable lead for Nikki Haley among true Independents in her matchup with Joe Biden, so that is something that is pretty interesting finding.

“Swing voters, when you give them a Biden versus Trump matchup, they’re split,” Byler added. “When you give them a Biden versus Haley matchup, they are more Haley favoring…”

The poll found that among likely voters, Biden has a 43% approval rate with 56% disapproving and the rest unsure.

Byler also pointed out that Haley is also able to pull about 5% more Democrats to her side than Biden would be able to pull in Republicans.

“Some of what is happening with this shift toward Haley is from Independents, some is from Democrats who are willing to give her a look,” Byler said.

According to a question asked of all likely voters irrespective of party, inflation and price increases are a crucial issue, with 48% naming it as one of the top three issues facing the country. Illegal immigration came in second with 35% of those surveyed saying the same. Crime and violence came in third with 27% naming it as one of their top three issues heading into next year's presidential election.

Despite their potential success in a faceoff against Biden, both DeSantis and Haley face a chasm in support between themselves and Trump in the Republican primary.

The same poll found that Trump leads the Republican primary field with 59% support among likely voters. DeSantis comes in second at 13% support while Haley has 9% support.

Businessman and author Vivek Ramaswamy has 7% support while former Vice President Mike Pence, who has dropped out since the survey was conducted, is behind him at 5% support.

Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C. and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are tied at 2% support, according to the poll.

In addition, 1% of those Republican likely voters said they would vote for “none of these candidates” and another 1% said they would vote for “someone else not listed.”

The Republican primary’s Iowa Caucus is scheduled for January with the New Hampshire primary soon after.

Even if all other candidates dropped out of the race, DeSantis and Haley don’t appear ready to close the gap between themselves and Trump. The poll found that in a hypothetical matchup with Republican likely voters, Trump wins with 68% support compared to DeSantis’ 32% support. Trump does even better against Haley with 73% support compared to Haley’s 27% support.

“We tested specific matchups of [Trump] against Haley and him against DeSantis,” Byler said. “And what you saw when you had just a one-on-one matchup…Trump still cleaned up.”

Even still, Trump faces nearly 100 criminal charges, meaning his White House bid could be jeopardized at any time and suddenly thrust another Republican candidate to the top of the ticket. For now, it remains unclear who that candidate could be.

The poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct. 20-26 of this year with a margin of error of 1.92%.

Former President Donald Trump continues to dominate the Republican primary field, according to new polling, as his opponents are set to take the debate stage on Wednesday in Miami.

Trump’s Republican opponents will duke it out in Florida, but at least for now they are fighting for second place. The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll, conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights, now shows that Trump far outpaces his Republican opposition, even while skipping the debates and facing nearly 100 criminal charges in four separate indictments. How those criminal charges will affect Trump's candidacy remains to be seen.

The poll of 2,605 voters includes 1,035 Republicans, 1,074 Democrats, and 496 true Independents, and is among the most comprehensive in the country.

"Trump is continuing to dominate the primary field. We have seen some changers beneath the surface,” David Byler, chief of research at Noble Predictive Insights, told The Center Square. “As Nikki Haley has shown some strength in the debates and posted some strong fundraising numbers, we've seen her star rise and her join clearly a second tier that includes herself and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

"But really there is only one candidate in the top tier and his name is Donald Trump," he added.

The poll asked likely Republican voters who they would vote for for the 2024 presidential nomination, and Trump, who is not expected to debate Wednesday, has more support than all his challengers combined.

The poll found Trump leads the Republican field with 59% support among likely voters, trailed by DeSantis at 13% support and Haley, a former ambassador and governor, at 9% support.

Businessman and author Vivek Ramaswamy, who has made a polarizing splash at his debates, has 7% support while former Vice President Mike Pence, who has since dropped out of the race, is at 5% support.

U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are tied at 2% support.

In addition, 1% of those likely Republican voters said they would vote for “none of these candidates” and another 1% said they would vote for “someone else not listed.”

Notably, the survey was conducted before Pence announced he was withdrawing from the race.

The Republican primary’s Iowa Caucus is scheduled for Jan. 15 with the yet-to-be-scheduled New Hampshire primary likely soon after. Those early state contests mean less for stronger candidates like Trump but can make all the difference for lower-tier candidates trying to build momentum and raise money for their campaign. Performing well in those races could also set a candidate up to become a viable pick for vice president.

"If you look across the polling, Republicans really want [Trump] to have a third run at the White House," Byler said, referencing an array of polling from multiple research groups. "You see that “Republican voters believe that Trump is electable. They like his policies. They know him from seeing him have a full term in the White House, and right now he is in a very dominant position."

The polling also shows that voters who do not have Trump as their first choice are not necessarily “never Trumpers.” The survey found that even when put in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup with DeSantis or Haley, Trump still beats them by double digits.

In a faceoff against DeSantis, Trump wins with 68% support among Republican likely voters to DeSantis’ 32% support. Against Haley, Trump wins with 73% support to Haley’s 27% support.

“We tested specific matchups of [Trump] against Haley and him against DeSantis,” Byler said. “And what you saw when you had just a one-on-one matchup … Trump still cleaned up. This wasn’t a matter of, ‘oh could the anti-Trump forces consolidate enough and get behind a candidate.’”

In fact, Trump appears as strong or stronger in this primary than his first Republican primary, where he dominated his opponents.

“In the 2016 election, Trump was consistently below 50% in the polls and the key question was whether or not his alternatives could coalesce around one candidate who could beat him,” Byler said. “That is no longer the case. That is no longer the operative question … According to our polling, Trump is winning 2 to 1 against single candidates who are his strongest opponents, so the question here is, not can the anti-Trump forces unite. The question is, can the anti-Trump forces unite and shave off another 20% of Donald Trump’s vote share, which is a whole other ball game compared to his last run.”

The poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Oct. 20-26 of this year with a margin of error of 1.92%.

The poll weighted each party – Republicans, Democrats, and True Independents – independently, according to Noble Predictive. In other words, the Republican subsample is weighted so it matches the national Republican population, and the same is true for Democrats and True Independents.