Monthly Archives: October, 2024

(The Center Square) – New polling from Wisconsin shows the presidential race in the state remains too close to call.

The survey, conducted Oct. 16-24 by Marquette Law School, shows Democrat Vice President Kamala Harris barely leads Republican former President Donald Trump 50% to 49% among Wisconsin voters. The results fall well within the poll’s +/-4.4 margin of error.

“It should not surprise anyone if Donald Trump wins, and it should not surprise anyone if Kamala Harris wins,” MLS poll Director Franklin said. “Because the polling – both ours and the polling averages for the state, which is under a 1% average margin right now – are just so close that polling is not going to help us at all to have confidence in who’s the likely winner.”

The partisan makeup of the poll sample, which included 834 registered and 753 likely voters, is 39% Republican, 31% Democratic, and 34% Independent.

Favorability ratings have remained mostly stable for the presidential candidates, but have significantly changed for their vice presidential picks.

Trump went from a net -11 in September to a -14 in October, while Harris’s ratings also dropped during that time from -3 favorability to -5 favorability. But Sen. J.D. Vance’s favorability has shot up by 9 points since last month, though he still has a net negative rating, -4 percentage points. By contrast, Gov. Tim Walz’s favorability has dropped 7 points since last month, with his current rating at exactly zero percentage points, still the highest out of all the candidates.

Candidate images have barely changed, with voters still believing Harris has a better personality overall than Trump. Voters’ opinions on who would do a better job on political issues have also mostly remained the same, with the majority believing Trump would better handle the economy, immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, and foreign relations. Harris scores much higher on the issues of Medicare and Social Security, health care and abortion policy.

The economy remains by far the most important issue for Wisconsin voters at 38%, with abortion policy at 15% and immigration and border security at 13%.

“If you look at personality, most of those favor Harris. If you look at issues, it’s a split. But when you look at the single most important issue to people, it’s a slight Trump advantage,” Franklin summarized. “So that kind of explains why we have such a close race.”

MLS also analyzed the voter gender gap using a pooled sample of all registered voters interviewed in the four MLS polls from July to October. Women, who made up 51% of registered voters in the combined July-October polls, favored Harris by 14 percentage points, while men, who made up 48%, favored Trump by 12 percentage points, a 26-point gap between the genders. Though significant, the difference is smaller than the 32-point gap in 2020 and the 30-point gap in 2016.

The gender gap is especially large among non-white voters, suburban-dwelling voters, and voters under age 30 and between the ages of 45-59. The gender gap is smallest within rural communities and small towns, older voters, and born-again Protestants.

Enthusiasm levels across both the gender and partisan gap remain high, something Franklin says could drive voter turnout to 2020 levels.

“[The year] 2020 set records for turnout. It would be hard to reach those levels again,” Franklin said. “But I think with this level of enthusiasm, we do have some reason to believe that we should expect to see turnout close to the 3.3 million we saw last time.”

(The Center Square) – With a total of 137 local school referendum questions spread across ballots in Wisconsin, recent data shows voters’ support for increasing property taxes to fund public education is waning.

Marquette Law School polled 834 registered Wisconsin voters from Oct. 16-24, asking their opinions on presidential candidates, the direction of the state, and public school referendums, among other things.

The poll found that voters’ desire to prioritize public school spending over lower property taxes peaked in late 2018, when 57% of Wisconsin registered voters polled said increasing school spending was more important and only 37% said reducing property taxes was more important.

But now, voter support for increasing school district funding has fallen to its lowest level since Marquette began tracking the sentiment in 2013, with only 44% in the most recent survey saying school spending is more important, versus 55% who chose lower property taxes. The change occurs even as voters’ reported satisfaction with Wisconsin schools has returned to November 2023 levels, though not to pre-pandemic levels.

School districts in Wisconsin are subject to a 1993 state law that places limits on how much local governments can increase their property taxes each year. But a district’s property taxes can be raised above the revenue limit through voter-approved ballot proposals.

This past spring, voters across the state approved 62 of the 103 school referendum questions on the ballot, the lowest approval numbers in a midterm or presidential election year since 2010, according to the Wisconsin Policy Forum.

The U.S. Supreme Court has granted Virginia’s emergency request to keep “noncitizens” off voter rolls, Attorney General Jason Miyares announced Wednesday morning via a social media post.

The Wednesday morning announcement comes after a coalition of 24 state attorneys general joined the commonwealth in urging the high court to allow Virginia to remove “self-identified noncitizens” from voter rolls.

Miyares announced Sunday evening that the commonwealth would file an emergency appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court in a last-ditch effort to block a ruling an order from the U.S. District Court to return over 1,500 noncitizens to the voter rolls that have been removed since Aug. 7.

The 6-3 ruling overturns the unanimous decision from a panel of judges in the Fourth Circuit of Appeals that rejected Virginia's request on Sunday to stop an order from a lower court to reinstate noncitizen registrations removed from voter rolls.

In the amicus brief filed to the highest court, the attorneys general argued that the ruling from the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia “undermines the constitutional authority of states to determine voter qualifications” to maintain election integrity “by allowing only eligible citizens to vote.”

The top prosecutors argue that the District Court’s ruling is “based on flawed interpretation” of the National Voter Registration Act’s 90-day “quiet period.” They claim the quiet period “does not apply to the removal of noncitizens from voter rolls.”

“Noncitizens are not eligible voters,” the brief reads. “They were not eligible voters before Congress passed the National Voter Registration Act, they were not eligible when Congress passed the NVRA, and they are not eligible today.”

Miyares has defended the commonwealth's removal of noncitizens from the voter rolls, claiming the ruling was “politically motivated.”

"It should never be illegal to remove an illegal voter," said Miyares. "The Department of Justice pulled this shameful, politically motivated stunt 25 days before Election Day, challenging a Virginia process signed into law 18 years ago by a Democrat governor and approved by the Department of Justice in 2006.”

The Friday ruling drew criticism from Republicans, including former president Donald Trump, who claimed the move was an attempt by the Biden Administration to “weaponize” the Justice Department.

“Now their truly Weaponized Department of ‘Injustice,’ and a Judge (appointed by Joe), have ORDERED the Great Commonwealth of Virginia to PUT NON-CITIZEN VOTERS BACK ON THE ROLLS. This is a totally unacceptable travesty,” Trump posted on X.

In the lawsuit, the Justice Department alleged the commonwealth unlawfully removed individuals deemed “noncitizens” from voter rolls within 90 days before an election, citing a “quiet period” in the National Voter Registration Act that mandates “no such voter cancelation or list maintenance programs may be conducted” within that time period.

(The Center Square) – There’s a warning about invasive carp in two western Wisconsin rivers.

The Department of Natural Resources said silver carp have been found in both the lower Chippewa River and lower Black River.

“In July, the DNR began receiving reports from anglers of jumping fish suspected to be invasive carp at the Dells Dam on the lower Chippewa River in Eau Claire. The Dells Dam in Eau Claire prevents further upstream passage of invasive carp in the Chippewa River System,” the

DNR said. “On Aug. 1, DNR staff went to the dam and observed jumping fish but were unable to verify the species of fish.”

The department said it confirmed silver carp in the lower Black River in September.

“The dam in Black River Falls is a barrier to upstream fish migration, and no observations or other detections of invasive carp have been reported in the lower Black River at this time,” the DNR added.

Silver carp are an invasive species in the Midwest and have done immense damage to other rivers where they’ve been found.

“It is believed that the carp may have migrated in June and early July due to the high-water levels observed on the Mississippi River, which would have allowed fish to move upstream into adjacent tributaries,” the department explained. “Tributaries to the lower Chippewa River, such as the Red Cedar River up to the Lake Menomin Dam and the Eau Claire River up to the Lake Altoona Dam, may be other potential locations where invasive carp might be observed since these waterbodies do not have barriers that would prevent upstream fish movement from the adjacent lower Chippewa River.”

The DNR is not saying what it plans to do about the carp but is asking people to keep an eye out for them.

“Although no technology currently exists to eradicate invasive carp, the DNR is working collaboratively with other state and federal agencies on the research and development of invasive carp prevention and control technologies,” the department added. “Anglers and others who capture any potential invasive carp are asked to euthanize the fish, put them on ice and contact a local aquatic invasive species staff, fisheries biologist or warden to confirm identification.”

Some Arab- and Muslin-American leaders endorsed Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump during a campaign rally Saturday in Novi, Michigan.

The endorsements are notable in the key swing state that is home to more than 200,000 Muslim-American voters. According to RealClearPolitics' polling average, Trump holds the narrowest of leads over Harris in Michigan, 47.9% to 47.7%.

"We're winning overwhelming support from the Muslim and Arab voters right here in Michigan," Trump told the crowd.

That support from Muslim leaders includes Hamtramck Mayor Amer Ghalib and Dearborn Heights Mayor Bill Bazzi, as well as Imam Belal Alzuhairi.

Saturday's rally occurred less than 24 hours after Israel struck Iran with strategically targeted missiles the night before. The ongoing turmoil in the Middle East was among the reasons the Muslim and Arab leaders cited in their endorsement of the former president.

"We are supporting Donald Trump because he promised to end war in the Middle East and Ukraine," Alzuhairi said. "The bloodshed has to stop all over the world, and I think this man can make that happen."

Alzuhairi added, "I personally believe that God saved his life twice for a reason," referring to the two unsuccessful assassination attempts against Trump's life.

Two recent polls indicate that many Arab- and Muslim-Americans, traditionally voting blocs for Democrats. are drifting away from Democratic presidential nominee and Vice President Kamala Harris as the Biden-Harris administration struggles to balance U.S. support for Israel with appeasing a significant anti-Israel faction within the Democratic Party.

In one poll of 500 Arab American registered voters conducted by The Arab American Institute, Trump and Harris were nearly split, 42-41%, a drop in support from the level Democrats received in 2020, as The Center Square previously reported.

In the other conducted in late August, The Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) released a poll showing American Muslim voters supporting Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein and Harris equally, at 29% each, with Trump at 12%. In Michigan, the poll found that 40% of Muslim voters support Stein, 18% support Trump, and just 12% support Harris.

Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares announced late Sunday the commonwealth will file an emergency appeal with the U.S. Supreme Court in a last-ditch effort to block the return of more than 1,500 noncitizens to voter rolls.

The appeal follows a unanimous panel ruling Sunday from the Fourth Circuit of Appeals rejecting Virginia's request to stop an order from a lower court to reinstate noncitizens removed from voter rolls within 90 days of an election.

The latest ruling comes two days after the commonwealth filed an emergency motion to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit on Friday night to stay a ruling from the district court.

Shortly after Friday's ruling, Miyares defended the commonwealth's removal of noncitizens from the voter rolls, claiming the ruling was “politically motivated.”

"It should never be illegal to remove an illegal voter," said Miyares. "The Department of Justice pulled this shameful, politically motivated stunt 25 days before Election Day, challenging a Virginia process signed into law 18 years ago by a Democrat governor and approved by the Department of Justice in 2006.”

The Friday ruling drew criticism from Republicans, including former president Donald Trump, who claimed the move was an attempt by the Biden Administration to “weaponize” the Justice Department.

“Now their truly Weaponized Department of ‘Injustice,’ and a Judge (appointed by Joe), have ORDERED the Great Commonwealth of Virginia to PUT NON-CITIZEN VOTERS BACK ON THE ROLLS. This is a totally unacceptable travesty,” Trump posted on X.

The former president commended Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s vow to appeal the “illegal order,” while calling on SCOTUS to remedy the situation.

“Gov. Youngkin is absolutely right to appeal this ILLEGAL ORDER, and the U.S. Supreme Court will hopefully fix it! Only U.S. Citizens should be allowed to vote. Keep fighting, Glenn – AND REPUBLICANS IN VIRGINIA, KEEP VOTING EARLY!”

Shortly after Miyares’ announcement, Youngkin commended the attorney general for taking decisive action.

“It’s commonsense noncitizens shouldn’t be our voter rolls. Thank you [Jason Miyares] for filing immediately with the U.S. Supreme Court for an emergency appeal of the order for Virginia to put over 1,500 people who self-identified as non-citizens back on the voter rolls,” Youngkin posted on X late Sunday evening.

The lawsuit filed by the Justice Department the commonwealth unlawfully removed individuals deemed “noncitizens” from voter rolls within 90 days before an election, citing a “quiet period” in the National Voter Registration Act that mandates “no such voter cancelation or list maintenance programs may be conducted” within that time period.

It’s unclear if there is enough time for the Supreme to rule on the matter before Nov. 5.

There were nearly 565,000 illegal border crossers reported in Arizona in fiscal 2024, according to U.S. Customs and Border Protection data.

Arizona’s 378 miles of shared border with Mexico is staffed by CBP and Border Patrol agents in the CBP sectors of Tucson and Yuma. Tucson Sector’s 262-mile shared border with Mexico extends from the Yuma County line to the Arizona-New Mexico state line. Yuma Sector’s nearly 182,000 square miles of primarily desert terrain extends from Imperial Sand Dunes in California to the Yuma-Pima County line.

The Tucson Sector has historically been one of the busiest along the U.S.-Mexico border. In fiscal 2024, Border Patrol agents there reported 463,567 illegal border crossers, the most of any sector along the southwest border during the year, which runs from Oct. 1 through Sept. 30. The second greatest number was reported by San Diego Sector Border Patrol agents of nearly 325,000, The Center Square reported.

Tucson Office of Field Operations agents also reported 47,051 illegal border crossers in fiscal 2024, significantly less than San Diego OFO’s 183,890 over the same time period.

In CBP’s Yuma Sector, Border Patrol agents reported 53,877 illegal border crossers. Because of the sector’s vast desert, large drifting sand dunes, mountainous terrain, ever-changing Colorado River, and temperatures exceeding 120 degrees, Yuma Border Patrol agents often rescue illegal border crossers in distress.

Combined, apprehensions in Arizona totaled at least 564,495 in fiscal 2024 excluding gotaways, those who illegally entered and evaded capture. Data for both sectors is consistent with nationwide data: the overwhelming majority of illegal border crossers are single adults coming from all over the world.

In Tucson Sector’s Cochise County, Sheriff Mark Dannels says despite numerous requests, he’s never met with President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris the entire time they’ve been in office as his rural county has been pummeled with illegal border crossers and cartel-related crime.

“My community's frustrated over the last three and a half years with what we've dealt with … when it comes to crime and the policies that have failed this country; the policies have failed our citizens, and the tragedies that my neighbors are addressing silently, because nobody's listening,” Dannels, who is also the chairman of the National Sheriff’s Association for Border Security, said.

Over a 31-month period, his office booked 3,762 people in the county jail for border-related crimes, he said. “These are not immigration issues. These are border-related crimes, with double digit murders.”

In an investigation led by the U.S. House Committee on Homeland Security, Arizona Border Patrol chiefs expressed concerns about gotaways and national security risks. Tucson Sector Chief Border Patrol Agent John Modlin said, “When we make an arrest, we can then vet that person and find out, if they have a criminal history, if there are national security concerns. Gotaways are a public safety concern … potentially a national security concern.”

“The smuggling organizations to our south are very well organized and resourceful,” he said, referring to Mexican cartels. “Each and every person crossing through the Tucson Sector must pay these criminal organizations. The migrants we encounter are completely outfitted in camouflage by the smuggling organizations before they cross. Most run from and fight our agents to avoid apprehension. Many are previously deported felons who know they are inadmissible to the United States and many pose a serious threat to our communities.”

Modlin also expressed concerns about having to pull agents from other areas to deal with surges, a practice used across sectors, The Center Square reported. Yuma Sector Deputy Chief Border Patrol Agent Dustin Caudle said the sector’s three interior checkpoints are critical for interdicting gotaways, but the majority of fiscal 2022 and most of fiscal 2023 they were down, meaning the border was wide open and unmanned.

As Border Patrol agents were inundated with surges of illegal border crossers and given timeframes to process and release them into the country under Biden-Harris policies, background checks and vetting weren’t always performed and individuals on the terrorist watch list were released into the country, according to congressional investigations and Office of Inspector General reports. Americans living more than 2,600 miles away are also suffering consequences. Crimes being committed in New England can be traced back to foreign nationals who illegally entered the country in Arizona, The Center Square reported.

Despite ongoing challenges, federal, state and local law enforcement agents in Arizona have seized a record amount of fentanyl in the last few years, enough to kill billions of people. Earlier this year, CBP agents seized half a ton of fentanyl at the Lukeville Port of Entry in the Tucson Sector, the largest fentanyl seizure in CBP history. With two milligrams considered a lethal dose, and 22,696.2 lethal doses in a pound, they seized more than 453 million lethal doses, enough to kill roughly the entire population of the U.S. and Mexico.

Arizona parents who’ve lost children to fentanyl, like Josephine Dunn, have called on the Arizona legislature and Congress to act, The Center Square reported.

As the Biden-Harris administration escalated flights of illegal foreign nationals into the country, Arizona’s border apprehensions were down in fiscal 2024 compared to the more than 775,000 reported in fiscal 2023, The Center Square first reported.

(The Center Square) – Wisconsin Republican Reps. Derrick Van Orden and Bryan Steil testified at a House Judiciary Committee meeting last week about the dangers of sanctuary cities and the community challenges illegal immigration has posed across the state, particularly in Whitewater.

Steil has previously pointed to Whitewater as a “case study” of the damaging effects of illegal immigration under the current administration. The influx of roughly 1,000 migrants to the city of 15,000 has led to increasing strain on law enforcement, school resources, and housing capacity in Whitewater, according to reports. Now, the city is witnessing cartel activity, including drug and human trafficking operations, Steil testified, referencing multiple reports.

“We know the danger that that poses in our communities,” Steil said. “And there has been state legislation where we could have had an opportunity to ban sanctuary cities here in the United States, and we’ve not been successful in doing that under Democratic leadership.”

Though Madison is the only city in Wisconsin officially classified as a sanctuary city, Whitewater officials seem uncertain over whether the city is legally able to send away migrants, who have temporary asylum status under the Biden-Harris administration’s “catch and release” policy, where migrants who illegally cross into the country are allowed to wait in the U.S. for their claims to be processed in an immigration court.

The effects of illegal immigration have also affected Wisconsin on a statewide scale, Van Orden testified at the hearing, particularly at prisons in the state.

In particular, Wisconsin’s Federal Correctional Institution Oxford is holding 650 migrants who have committed felonies, more than half of the prison’s housing capacity of 1,200. According to Oxford administrators, the cost of housing a single inmate is $42,000 per year, amounting to $27 million in taxpayer dollars going to holding migrant inmates.

A record 14 million illegal border crossings have occurred under the Biden-Harris administration, with nearly 3 million occurring during the past 2024 fiscal year, the second-highest number in U.S. history.

Of the record 14 million illegal border crossers reported under the Biden-Harris administration, more than 1.62 million are from four Countries of Particular Concern (CPC): China, Cuba, Nicaragua and Russia.

The U.S. State Department has designated CPCs for their policies of “systematic, ongoing, egregious violations of religious freedom,” which includes “torture, prolonged detention without charges, forced disappearance, or other flagrant denial of life, liberty, or security of persons.”

U.S. designated CPCs include Burma, the People’s Republic of China, Cuba, Eritrea, Iran, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea), Nicaragua, Pakistan, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. The CPCs of Cuba, North Korea, and Iran are also designated State Sponsors of Terrorism (SST).

U.S. Customs and Border Protection records nationality for every illegal border crosser but not all nationality data is published online. Of the 12 CPCs, CBP published apprehension and encounter data reported nationwide for four: China, Cuba, Nicaragua and Russia.

Published data is from fiscal years 2021-2024; a fiscal year begins Oct. 1 and ends Sept. 30. CBP CPC data under the Biden-Harris administration excludes data from the first three months of fiscal 2021 under the previous administration. It also excludes gotaway data, those who illegally entered and evaded capture, and those released through several parole programs.

More than 176,000 Chinese illegal border crossers

Under the Biden-Harris administration, the greatest number of Chinese illegal border crossers was reported nationwide in U.S. history of 176,038.

That’s up from nearly 160,000 The Center Square reported in June.

The greatest number was reported in fiscal 2024 of 78,701, up from 52,700 in fiscal 2023, 27,756 in fiscal 2022 and 16,881 for nine months in fiscal 2021.

Republican members of Congress have expressed alarm about national security threats posed by the Chinese Communist Party, Chinese intelligence outposts operating in the U.S., Chinese and other illegal border crossers breaching U.S. military bases, Democratic vice presidential candidate Minn. Gov. Tim Walz’s alleged ties to the CCP, among other concerns. The U.S. House also passed bills to counter the CCP threat.

Nearly 786,000 Cuban illegal border crossers

Under the Biden-Harris administration, the greatest number of Cuban illegal border crossers was reported nationwide in U.S. history of more than 786,000.

The most were reported in fiscal 2022 of 224,607, followed by 217,615 in fiscal 2024, 200,287 in fiscal 2023 and 33,876 in nine months in fiscal 2021. They total 676,385.

At least 110,000 inadmissable Cubans were released into the U.S. through a CHNV Parole Program, according to CBP data.

Republican members of Congress have demanded answers about Chinese spies operating out of Cuba targeting Americans, nonimmigrant visas expanded to Cubans “endanger[ing] our national security,” non vetting of SST diplomats, among other concerns.

More than 536,000 Nicaraguan illegal border crossers

Under the Biden-Harris administration, the greatest number of Nicaraguan illegal border crossers was reported nationwide in U.S. history of more than 536,000.

The greatest number was reported in fiscal 2022 of 164,600, followed by 138,729 in fiscal 2023, 91,049 in fiscal 2024 and 49,254 in nine months in fiscal 2021, according to the data. They total 443,632. At least 93,000 inadmissible Nicaraguans were released into the country through the CHNV Parole program, according to CBP data.

Both Cuban and Nicaraguan nationals have been released into the country by historic proportions due to a new CHNV parole program created by Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. CHNV parolees are also being arrested nationwide for committing violent crimes against Americans, The Center Square reported.

Nearly 127,000 Russian illegal border crossers

Under the Biden-Harris administration, the greatest number of Russian illegal border crossers was reported nationwide in U.S. history of 126,683, with the most reported in fiscal 2023 of more than 57,000, according to the data.

This year, FBI Director Christopher Wray testified multiple times before Congress of increased terrorist threats, including from China, Iran, North Korea and Russia. Several federal agencies also warned about Russian cyberthreats targeting U.S. “critical infrastructure with disruptive and destructive cyber and physical attacks,” as west Texas municipal water systems were targeted by Russian hackers, The Center Square reported.

The total excludes data not published about 8 CPCs as well as CPC nationals released into the U.S. through the CBP One App and other parole programs.

Combined, illegal border crossers from these four CPCs, 1,625,738, total more than the individual populations of 11 states: Hawaii, New Hampshire, Maine, Montana, Rhode Island, Delaware, South Dakota, North Dakota, Alaska, Vermont, and Wyoming.

They are also the equivalent of more than 36 U.S. Army corps, with 45,000 soldiers in a corps, and roughly double the number of U.S. troops who served in Afghanistan for 20 years.

(The Center Square) – Wisconsin’s Senate race between incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde are nearly dead even, polls from Emerson College and Trafalgar Group showed.

The results are like a Quinnipiac poll of 1,108 likely voters showing the two candidates are too close to call.

The Emerson College poll of 800 likely Wisconsin voters had each candidate at 48% support in a poll conducted Oct. 21-22 through contacting the cell phones of potential voters (61% of respondents) and an online panel of voters (39%).

The Emerson poll had Donald Trump with 49% support and Kamala Harris with 48% in the state. Nearly 65% of the 1.2% of undecided voters said that they lean toward Harris while 35% lean toward Trump.

The poll showed that nearly 42% of voters believe the economy is the most important issue facing the state while 17% said threats to democracy, 10% said abortion access and 9% each said immigration and housing affordability.

Of those surveyed, 46% said they voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 while nearly 46% said they voted for Trump.

The Trafalgar Republican-based poll showed Trump with a 0.2% lead over Harris in the state with 1.9% undecided and Hovde with a 0.4% lead over Baldwin with 3.4% undecided among 1,083 respondents between Oct. 18-20.

(The Center Square) – Wisconsin’s Senate race between incumbent Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican challenger Eric Hovde is too close to call, according to a new Quinnipiac Poll.

Baldwin has 49% support amount the 1,108 likely voters polled from Oct. 17-21 while Hovde saw 48% of the support in a poll with a 2.9% margin of error, making it too close to call.

That’s a tightening from an Oct. 9 poll that showed Baldwin with 50% support compared to 46% for Hovde. The toss-up call is similar to how the Cook Political Report sees the race. The two faced off in what was expected to be their only debate Friday evening.

The Quinnipiac Poll has run since 1994 and uses a random sampling of adults using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling both cell phones and land lines.

The poll also showed Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are tied with 48% support from likely voters in the presidential race in the state. All third party candidates received less than 1% support.

That compares to an Oct. 9 poll that showed Trump with 48% support and Harris with 46% support in Wisconsin.

The poll shows that Wisconsin women back Harris 57% to 39% while men back Trump 59% to 38%.

It showed that Trump has 52% support compared to Harris’ 47% on the economy, 50% prefer Harris to Trump’s 47% on preserving democracy while 54% in Wisconsin prefer Harris to 40% for Trump on abortion.

Voters were split 48% to 48% on whether Harris is considered honest while 56% say Trump is not honest and 40% believe that he is.

Annual FBI crime victimization surveys show violent crime is up 10.4% and property crime is up 6.4% between 2019 and 2023.

Each year, the FBI releases headline crime report data for the calendar year prior, and a separate crime victimization survey that asks Americans what crimes they have been the victims of. Comparing these reports provides insight into crime reporting rates and the accuracy of crime statistics.

While earlier reporting demonstrated that theft is worsening and often underreported, the growing divergence between the FBI’s annual crime victimization survey and its tabulations of reported crime indicates worsening trends in theft.

However, recent changes in how crime reporting data is collected, along with anomalous 2020 COVID-era data and reporting, have muddied the waters.

The FBI set a January 1, 2021 deadline back in 2016 for agencies to transition from the paper-based Summary Reporting System, which reports each incident of crime with the worst crime committed in the incident, with the computer-based National Incident-Based Reporting System, which can log up to 10 crimes per incident. But 40% of law enforcement agencies didn’t make the change in time. This included most agencies in populous California, New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Florida, and the two largest agencies: New York Police Department and Los Angeles Police Department.

As a result, reported violent and property crime dropped 15.9% and 27.3% respectively between 2020 and 2021, while at the same time victimization for violent crime rose 0.9% and property decreased 3.3%. The ratio of reported violent crimes to victimization declined from 85.6% in 2021 to 71.4% in 2021, while that of property crimes declined from 51.6% to 38.8%, highlighting how the 2021 reported crime figures are the product of a muddled transition in data collection.

Data did improve for 2022 and 2023, with only 17% of agencies failing to submit at least three months of NIBRS data in 2022, and 16,009 agencies covering 95.2% of the national population reporting for 2023. The full 2023 data released at the end of September now shows that violent crime reporting rates — reports divided by victimizations — for property crime are back to 2019 levels, but that property crime reporting rates are 14.4% below 2019 levels, highlighting perceptions that Americans just aren’t reporting as much of the property crime that happens to them.

Newly released polling data on former President Donald Trump’s increased margins with Black and Hispanic voters mark a seismic shift in the electorate with just two weeks until Election Day.

A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll released Monday found that nationally, Harris leads Trump by 1 point, well within the margin of error at 46% to 45%.

However, Trump significantly leads Harris with Hispanic voters and has made unprecedented gains among Black voters

The poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters between Oct. 14-18, shows that Trump leads Harris with Hispanics, 49% to 38%.

Harris also has 72% support among Black voters, which is much higher than Trump’s 17% support but much lower than other recent Democrats.

Previous Democrats like former President Barack Obama, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden received between 90-95% of Black voters’ support.

Black voters hold particular sway in the urban ares of key swing states like Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, Detroit, Atlanta and others.

The increased Hispanic support is a boon to Trump as well, particularly in the southwest swing states of Arizona and Nevada, which is about one third Hispanic.

Notably, Biden received 58% support from Hispanic voters when he beat Trump in 2020.

Harris does much better with women while Trump does better with men, something other polls have shown.

The Center Square Voter’s Voice poll as well as The New York Times/Siena College polling from earlier this month showed Harris’ weakness with Black voters, sending shockwaves through the Democratic party and pushing Harris to roll out new efforts to curry favor with Black voters.

The latest polling shows so far she hasn’t had much success.

Trump spent the weekend at a Pennsylvania McDonalds, simultaneously courting voters in the swing state and mocking his opponent, who he says lied about having previously worked at a McDonalds.

“I’ve now worked [at McDonald’s] for 15 minutes more than Kamala,” Trump told bystanders and media at the McDonalds location.

Meanwhile, Harris fired back online saying that she worked there for a summer job and that Trump wouldn’t understand that since he received a sizeable inheritance from his father.

According to Real Clear Politics’ polling average, Trump leads in every single one of the seven closest swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

His leads, though, are all less than two points and within the margin of error for most polls.

Harris leads by between 4 and 7 percentage points in Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia.

Trump holds a 7-point lead in Ohio.

With no more scheduled debates and two weeks of feverish campaigning, who will manage to build a slight lead remains to be seen.

(The Center Square) – Wisconsin has seen 305,000 absentee ballots returned heading into the final two weeks before the election.

In-person absentee voting began Monday and runs through Nov. 3 at sites throughout the state. Voters can register in person at their local municipality and need to show valid identification to receive an absentee ballot.

The deadline for online and mail voter registration has passed.

Wisconsin provides information on in-person absentee voting based upon address on its MyVote site.

An updated list of ballot drop boxes shows that 107 drop boxes are in use throughout the state that have been reported to the Wisconsin Elections Commission, up from 78 that were listed a week ago.

That includes 14 in Madison, 14 in Milwaukee and seven in Racine.

There were 500 drop boxes in use for the 2020 presidential election during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Wisconsin has sent out 586,616 absentee ballots of the 593,550 requested through Friday with 305,344 already returned.