Sunday, October 20, 2024
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Sunday, October 20, 2024

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Poll: Trump 1st to Clear Margin of Error, Leads by 5 in North Carolina

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Less than 48 hours before arrival in North Carolina and just over two weeks until Election Day, Donald Trump has become the first to clear the margin of error leading a presidential poll in the battleground state.

Trump leads Kamala Harris 51%-46% in the latest poll from Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of error is +/- 3% with a 95% level of confidence in the sampling of 1,042 likely voters taken Oct. 9 through Monday.

Trump is slated for a visit to the East Carolina University campus in Greenville on Monday afternoon, where he’ll speak from Minges Coliseum. Pitt County was a 53.96%-44.51% win for the challenger Biden against the incumbent Republican in 2020, taking more than 47,000 of 87,573 votes.

Pitt was one of 10 counties, and the southern-most sans one, east of Interstate 95 he captured. The Maine to Florida connector is recognized as a bit of a divider for the state, with more populous areas toward the western two-thirds and plenty of rural socioeconomic challenges from it to the Atlantic Ocean.

Other key answers from the poll: Federal funding is favored 80%-12% for Americans impacted by disaster over “assistance for illegal aliens;” 70% prefer “major change” to “business as usual” in relation to the next president’s governing; and Harris, daughter of an Indian mother and Jamaican father, is collecting 70% of Black voters as compared to 92% by Biden in 2020.

The top issues question in choosing a president or U.S. senator was led by the economy (33%), border security (17%) and abortion (12%). At 7% each were violent crime, climate change and government corruption. Education (5%) matched other (5%) and was just in front of not sure (4%) and global conflicts and war (3%). North Carolina does not have a Senate seat race this year.

On the question of “who is the biggest enemy America faces?” the Democratic Party got 27%, China 19%, the Republican Party 16%, Russia 15%, domestic extremists 9%, unsure 8%, and Iran 6%.

In 2020, Trump won North Carolina 49.9%-48.6% over the ticket of Biden and Harris. In 2016, Trump won the state 49.8%-46.2% over the ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine. Trump outperformed the September and October polls each time.

North Carolina is one of seven consensus battleground states that collectively pivot 93 electoral college votes. Few prognosticators believe either candidate can win without the state or Pennsylvania, and perhaps need to take both.

Pennsylvania has 19 electoral college votes, North Carolina and Georgia 16 each, Michigan 15, Arizona 11, Wisconsin 10 and Nevada six.

The 78-year-old Trump has a 20-point platform, led by a return to enforcement of securing national borders. He chastises the Democrats for inflation that at 2.4% remains higher than when he left office in January 2021, yet is considerably lower than the 9.1% high of June 2022 in the era of Bidenomics. Energy independence and “manufacturing superpower” are also in his top five.

Harris, second in command to Biden and turning 60 on Sunday, says her top issues are an opportunity economy and lower costs for families. Tax cuts for the middle class, affordable rent and home ownership, and growth by small businesses also top her list. On abortion she favors federal regulation over state authority, meaning a return to Roe v. Wade.

Republicans own an unmistakable 14-cycle pattern in presidential elections. Since Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson carried North Carolina and won the presidency in 1964, only Democrats Jimmy Carter (1976) and Barack Obama (2008) have prevailed. Respectively four years later for each, they lost to Ronald Reagan and Mitt Romney.

Alan Wooten
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Reposted with permission

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Kamala Harris Touts Legalization of Marijuana Stance to Court Black Men

Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday touted her support for legalizing marijuana, explicitly tying the issue to her effort to get support from Black voters in a social media post that drew immediate pushback.

Harris posted on X, formerly known as Twitter, a call to legalize recreational marijuana and specifically said the policy would help Black men.

“Breaking down unjust barriers that hold Black men and other Americans back and making sure Black Americans have opportunities to succeed as the market place takes shape,” Harris said, adding that "no one should go to jail for smoking weed."

One commenter on X remarked, “All Black People DON'T smoke weed...Other races smoke weed too; I don't think you understand how insulting this post is!”

The more common pushback, though, came from critics pointing out that Harris actively prosecuted marijuana-related crimes during her time as attorney general in California.

Former Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard helped end Harris’ presidential campaign in 2020 by bringing up this very issue at the Democratic debate.

“Now Senator Harris says she’s proud of her record as a prosecutor and that she’ll be a prosecutor president, but I’m deeply concerned about this record,” Gabbard said at the debate.

“She put over 1,500 people in jail for marijuana violations and then laughed about it when she was asked if she ever smoked marijuana,” Gabbard continued, referring to Harris laughing when admitting she smoked weed during an interview on The Breakfast Club.

Fact-checkers later pushed back on that number, but Harris' tough-on-crime stance while in California and her prosecution of marijuana-related offenses is indisputable.

Harris comments come after The Center Square Voter’s Voice poll showed that Harris is getting less support from likely Black voters than former President Barack Obama, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, and President Joe Biden.

As The Center Square previously reported, Harris received 79% support among Black voters in the national survey while former President Donald Trump received 16% support from likely Black voters.

Harris’ 79% support is significantly lower than the three former Democratic presidential candidates, which could be a factor in the very close presidential race.

Obama received 95% of the Black vote in 2008 while former Secretary of State and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton received about 91% support in 2016, and Biden received 92% support in 2020.

In an apparent effort to close the gap, Harris also posted on Monday about “creating an opportunity agenda for black men,” another attempt to court the demographic.

The post also said Harris would “provide 1 million loans that are fully forgivable up to $20k for Black entrepreneurs and others to start a business” and “support education training, and mentorship programs that lead to good-paying jobs for Black men, including pathways to become teachers.”

She also pledged to “protect cryptocurrency investments so Black men who make them know their money is safe” and “launch a national health initiative focused on the illnesses that disproportionately impact Black men.”

Obama chided Black men in a speech last week for their hesitancy to support Harris.

​​“Now, I also want to say that that seems to be more pronounced with the brothers,” Obama said, referring to the lower support for Harris among Black men.

Special Interest Aliens

Texas Troopers Arrest More Special Interest Aliens, Including Men From Iran

Texas Department of Public Safety troopers working through Gov. Greg Abbott’s border security mission, Operation Lone Star, continue to arrest “special interest aliens,” primarily men from countries of foreign concern. That includes Iran, a U.S. State Department designated State Sponsor of Terrorism.

Texas DPS first sounded the alarm about increasing arrests of SIAs last month, The Center Square first reported.

In the past week, DPS troopers have arrested dozens of SIAs, Texas DPS Lt. Chris Olivarez said in a series of social media posts.

SIAs are noncitizens who, based “on an analysis of travel patterns,” are “known or evaluated to possibly have a nexus to terrorism” who “potentially poses a national security risk to the United States,” the U.S. Department of Homeland Security explains. Having an SIA designation does not necessarily mean the individual is a terrorist, but their travel pattern “indicates a possible nexus to nefarious activity (including terrorism) and, at a minimum, provides indicators that necessitate heightened screening and further investigation,” DHS says.

On Oct. 11, DPS troopers apprehended 165 foreign nationals in Quemado, outside of Eagle Pass, after they illegally entered Texas from Mexico. Among them were 14 identified as SIAs – citizens of Iran, Egypt, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

President Joe Biden recently extended executive orders declaring multiple national emergencies citing national security threats related to Iran, ISIS, Syria, Afghanistan and the DRC, The Center Square reported.

In a video posted by DPS, apprehended Iranian SIAs stated their names and information about themselves in English. They said they are from Iran, they came through Mexico and were going to Florida, Las Vegas and San Francisco, respectively.

DPS troopers also arrested 57 illegal foreign nationals for criminal trespass – citizens of Peru, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Honduras, Guatemala, and Ecuador, Olivarez said.

On Oct. 13, Texas DPS troopers recovered 29 “unaccompanied alien children” (UACs) between the ages of 10 and 17. They all claimed to already have sponsors in New York, California, Colorado, Florida, Maine, and other states, he said.

On Oct. 14, Texas DPS troopers also recovered 23 UACs including 16 boys and seven girls, he said. Olivarez published a video of the UACs who stated their ages in Spanish.

All UACs are handed over to Border Patrol, which processes them and turns them over to the supervision of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of Refugee Resettlement. HHS ORR is rife with allegations of abuse, the non-vetting of sponsors, losing track of more than 100,000 UACs after they are released into the US, among other allegations prompting multiple congressional investigations. A House Committee also recently subpoenaed the head of HHS to provide information about UACs.

One Democratic U.S. senator from Oregon blocked an attempt to halt funding for organizations accused of abusing UACs; 158 House Democrats voted against deporting violent offenders, including child sex offenders.

One Texas group, Alliance for a Safe Texas, has called for action in Texas since the majority of UACs are housed in HHS-contracted facilities in the state, The Center Square first reported.

So far, through OLS, Texas DPS troopers have rescued over 900 UACs, The Center Square reported. Border Patrol agents are also continuing to rescue drugged UACs believed to have been abused and smuggled into the country.

On Oct. 14, Texas DPS troopers also apprehended a large group of illegal border crossers on private property in Maverick County. They included family groups, the 23 UACs and 22 SIAs – citizens of Egypt and Turkey, Olivarez said.

Last month, troopers apprehended SIAs from Turkey, all single military age men, The Center Square reported.

Last month, U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Georgia, filed a bill to require the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to publish data on SIAs who are apprehended illegally entering the U.S., The Center Square first reported.

SIA data collected by DHS has never been made public under any administration.

There have been at least 73,000 SIAs arrested under the Biden-Harris administration, Greene said at a congressional hearing. The number “does not include the potential special interest aliens among the 2 million known gotaways,” she said.

She’s referring to illegal border crossers who intentionally evade capture, don’t return to Mexico or Canada, run when pursued by law enforcement and aren’t apprehended, or their tracks are found by law enforcement and reported, officials have explained to The Center Square. They now total over 2 million since fiscal 2021, the greatest number reported under any presidential administration, The Center Square first reported.

trump suspect

Bets: 3 Weeks to go, & Trump Ascending to Favorite

Just 22 days from Election Day, Republican Donald Trump is the betting favorite over Kamala Harris 54.1%-44.9%.

Six times the favorite has changed since the vice president became the clear choice of Democrats in the wake of President Joe Biden quitting. The latest difference is the largest since the first of those shifts.

“We are going to defeat Kamala Harris, and we are going to usher in a new golden age of American success for citizens of every race, religion, color, and creed,” Trump said on social media Sunday.

Harris, campaigning Sunday in North Carolina, told her audience, "As president it is my pledge to you that I will always fight for all the American people, and together we will build a brighter future for our nation."

Trump has a 20-point platform, led by a return to enforcement of securing national borders. He chastises the Democrats for inflation that at 2.4% remains higher than when he left office in January 2021, yet is considerably lower than the 9.1% high of June 2022 under the watch of President Joe Biden. Energy independence and “manufacturing superpower” are also in his top five.

Harris, second in command to Biden, says her top issues are an opportunity economy and lower costs for families. Tax cuts for the middle class, affordable rent and home ownership, and growth by small businesses also top her list. She favors a return to Roe v. Wade on abortion.

Trump is favored on all seven of the RealClear sources to generate the betting average. Points Bet (57%) is strongest on the Republican, followed by Betsson (56%), Bwin (55%), Bovada (54%), Smarkets (53%), and Polymarket (52%) and Betfair (52%).

At the time of the first assassination attempt of Trump, he was running against Biden and his difference soared to plus-48.5 that July day. It was still over plus-42 a day before Biden quit and Harris assumed preferred candidate choice of Democrats.

The betting favorite changed to Harris on Aug. 8, went back to Trump on Aug. 21 as the Democratic National Convention closed though only for two days, came back to Trump again on Aug. 29, went back to Harris when they debated Sept. 10, and returned to Trump’s favor on Oct. 6.

In many states with early in-person voting, polls open this week.

11 Million IllegalsmSouthern Border Arrests

In Endorsing Trump, Border Patrol Union Pushes Back Against Biden, Harris Claims

The National Border Patrol Council, the union representing roughly 16,000 Border Patrol agents nationwide, endorsed former President Donald Trump for president while criticizing President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

On Monday, the union issued a statement, saying, “On behalf of the 16,000 men and women represented by the National Border Patrol Council, we strongly support and endorse Donald J. Trump for President of the United States.”

They did so after endorsing Trump at a Prescott, Ariz., rally on Sunday where Trump was joined by many Border Patrol leaders.

"If we allow border czar Harris to win this election, every city, every community in this great country is going to go to hell. The untold millions of people unvetted, who she has allowed into this country that are committing murders, rapes, robberies, burglaries and every other crime will continue to put our country in peril,” NBPC’s new president, Paul Perez, said.

"Only one man can fix that. That is Donald J. Trump. He has always stood with the men and women who protect this border, who put their lives on the line for the country."

The union also said border experts want Trump to be president “so that the border can be secured without compromise. Only the drug cartels and Democrats want an open border – that’s what Border Czar Harris has given them and will continue to do in the future.”

The union’s leaders for the last nearly four years have joined Trump at border events in Texas and Arizona. After Trump announced he was running for reelection, the NBPC’s former president, Brandon Judd, endorsed him and joined him at campaign events.

The NBPC has repeatedly criticized the border policies of Biden and Harris, arguing they created the border crisis. The union has also repeatedly fact checked claims they’ve made, including refuting that it had ever endorsed Biden for president.

Prior to dropping out of the presidential race, during the June presidential debate, Biden claimed, “the Border Patrol union endorsed me, endorsed my position.”

In response, the union posted a statement on X, saying, “To be clear, we never have and never will endorse Biden.”

During the Sept. 10 presidential debate between Harris and Trump, Harris made comments related to “the importance of sovereignty and territorial integrity,” which the union criticized. “She apparently only cares about other countries' sovereignty b/c when it comes to America, she and President Biden opened up the border, erasing any semblance of sovereignty,” it said.

After Harris made claims about her border policies at a campaign event in Douglas, Ariz., the union said, “VP Harris claimed that she played a role in increasing Border Patrol Agent overtime pay. This couldn't be further from the truth. As with all things border related she was no where to be found when we needed her.”

In response to Harris claiming that Border Patrol agents needed more resources, the union said, “We have apprehended over 8 million illegal immigrants over the last 4 years and now you realize we need more help 38 days before the election.

“Vice president Harris has ignored the border problem she created for over three years. She goes down there for 20 minutes for a photo op and decides to repeat some of the things the NPBC has said before. But again, where has she been the last 3 1/2 years?”

During the debate and at campaign rallies, Harris has repeatedly claimed she would sign a Senate border bill into law, which she says allocated funding to hire 1,500 Border Patrol agents. She and others claim Trump killed the bill.

On Sunday, Trump vowed to immediately ask Congress for funds to hire an additional 10,000 Border Patrol employees, give existing agents a 10% raise, and create a $10,000 retention and signing bonus, if elected president.

“I will always stand with the incredible men and women of Border Patrol,” he said. “They have a tremendous shortage because they haven’t been treated right. They want to do their jobs. You know, they consider it bad treatment when you’re not allowed to do your jobs.”

The Senate border bill does the opposite of what Harris and other proponents claim, according to the bill language, including allowing an unlimited number of illegal foreign nationals into the country due to numerous exceptions. The bill would codify existing policies created by DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas for which he was impeached in February, which Republicans argue is facilitating the ongoing crisis.

Texas officials also argued the bill would codify mass migration and nullify state sovereignty.

U.S. Senate Democrats and Independents ultimately didn’t support it; Senate Democratic leadership never brought it to a vote.

U.S. Senate Democrats have also sought to distance themselves from Biden-Harris border policies as local communities grapple with increased crime and social services costs associated with illegal border crossers. Senate leadership also refused to consider a border bill passed by the U.S. House.

Despite Harris’ recent campaign claims, while a U.S. senator, she sought to reduce funding and staff of federal border agencies, including seeking to eliminate U.S. Customs and Immigration Enforcement, the agency responsible for removing some of the most dangerous criminals.

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Poll: Majority of Voters Favor a Federal Ban on Transgender Procedures For Minors

Most registered voters, 59%, support a federal ban on transgender procedures such as puberty blockers and gender reassignment surgeries for minors, a new national poll found.

The strongest support for a federal ban came from registered Republicans (82%), while the lowest amount of support for it came from registered Democrats (36%). Independents polled offered majority support for a ban, with 56% in favor.

The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights between Oct.2-4 and surveyed 2,560 registered voters. The margin of error for the aggregate sample was ±2.1%.

According to the poll, although both sexes favored a federal ban on transgender procedures for minors, men were more likely to favor it, with 63% in favor compared to 56% for women. Among the ethnicities polled, “others” favored a ban the most at 63% compared to 61% for Whites. Of Black registered voters polled, 46% favored a ban, while 32% were opposed and 22% were not sure.

Among age demographics, the categories most in favor of a federal ban were 45-54 and 54-65, both of which polled at 61%, while 18-34 were the least in favor, albeit still at a 52% majority of them still supporting banning the procedures for minors.

Although voters with and without college degrees both favored a federal ban by more than 50%, those without degrees favored it more at 61%, while 55% of voters with a college degree supported a ban.

Voters with children supported a ban more than those without, at 61% to 52% respectively.

Geographically, rural voters favored a ban more than suburban or urban voters, at 64% compared to 57% and 58% respectively.

Regionally, the Northeast was least supportive of a federal ban, with 51% in favor. The South was the most supportive at 61%, while the Midwest favored it at 60%. Voters in the West favored a ban by 59%.

Transgender procedures on minors are now banned in 25 states, including states such as Ohio which, according to data from the nonprofit Do No Harm, was one of the top in the nation for procedures and procedures per capita. According to Do No Harm’s data, released last week, at least 13,994 transgender procedures were performed on minors across the U.S. between 2019-2023, The Center Square reported.

Do No Harm is a nonprofit group of physicians and other medical professionals that gets its name from the Hippocratic oath: "First, do no harm." According to its website, Do No Harm is "fighting to curtail the unscientific and individually harmful practice of so-called 'gender affirming care'" for children.

In an email to The Center Square, David Byler with Noble Predictive Insights, wrote that "on many issues surrounding trans rights and students or youth, the GOP has public opinion on their side. There’s a reason that, when you look at GOP ads, they are constantly hammering this and other related issues. And some prominent Democrats are pushing out moderate, rather than left, messages."

He added that "Republicans know that trans issues are a strong social issue for them – and after getting hit hard on abortion so many times since Dobbs, they want to make sure they’re pushing back and finding social issues that work for them."

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