While recent polls covering the U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin show Democrat incumbent Sen. Tammy Baldwin with a 7-point lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde, a project survey released this week by Cook Political Report suggests the race is one of the most competitive in the nation.
Compared to its survey in August when Baldwin led by +7, Cook Political Report’s most recent numbers show she has a 2-point lead of 49%, compared to Hovde’s 47% support.
By contrast, results from a recent Marquette Law School poll indicated Baldwin holds a substantial lead over her opponent, with 53% of both registered and likely voters choosing her versus 46% choosing Hovde in a head-to-head matchup.
Baldwin’s lead slightly narrowed to 5 points when respondents were allowed to choose undecided; 10% of registered voters reported they are undecided, while 48% went for Baldwin and 43% for Hovde.
The poll, conducted Sept. 18-26, interviewed 882 registered voters and 798 likely voters in Wisconsin with both surveys having +/-4.4 margin of error. The partisan makeup included 34% Republicans, 32% Democrats, and 34% Independents.
Baldwin also continues to lead her opponent in favorability ratings, with an equal number of registered voter respondents having a favorable versus unfavorable view of her, 47% to 47%. Favorable and unfavorable ratings of Hovde have each risen as voters have become more familiar with his candidacy, with 36% of October respondents holding a favorable view of him versus 45% holding an unfavorable view, a net -9 favorability rating compared to Baldwin’s net zero. But 18% of poll respondents still reported not knowing enough about Hovde to have an opinion.
Both the MLS and Cook Political Report surveys found that the two candidates have largely consolidated their bases and Independent voters are leaning towards Baldwin.
