It all adds up to one thing: Tammy Baldwin and Joe Biden are in trouble in the key swing state of Wisconsin.
Businessman Eric Hovde has TIED the Wisconsin Senate race against U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin with likely voters, a dramatic narrowing of the race since he entered it just over two months ago.
The poll also showed former President Donald Trump with a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in Wisconsin. Trump led Biden 51% to 49% among both likely and registered voters. It should be noted that in the 2016 election, the Marquette poll, although considered the most credible Wisconsin poll, dramatically underestimated Trump’s support.
The good news for Hovde, the Wisconsin-raised businessman who lives in the Madison area, comes as he has hammered Baldwin on her weak record on the border and her rubber stamping of the Joe Biden agenda. Baldwin has also been hit on the left by pro-Gaza activists who pushed her to flip slop and support a ceasefire.
Our country is less safe as a result of the Biden-Baldwin border crisis. #JustFacts pic.twitter.com/P4mWACIS9P
— Eric Hovde (@EricHovde) April 16, 2024
In February, Baldwin, the Democrat, had a 7-point lead. Then, that narrowed to a 3-point lead for Baldwin (that poll was within the margin of error). Now, according to a Marquette Law School poll released on April 17, “Among likely voters, the race is a tie, with 50% for both Baldwin and Hovde.”
There are a few other signs of peril for Baldwin. The poll shows much greater enthusiasm among voters for the Republican—Trump—than for Biden. This surge in conservative enthusiasm could boost Hovde if that gap is reflected in November turnout. The pro-Gaza left could pose a big problem for both Baldwin and Biden if they stay home or cast protest votes against them.
@amina.nut Wisconsin Senator Tammy Baldwin questioned by her constituents about her actions in response to the ongoing gen*cide of the Palestinian people. “The Palestinian people are not on a schedule!” We must hold all our elected officials accountable. Ceasefire Now! #freepalestine🇵🇸 #Ceasefire #luludeluna ♬ original sound – Amina
Furthermore, the poll shows that only 85% of Republicans support Hovde. As he becomes better known – and he has the money to do it – it’s hard to see some of the remaining Republicans sticking with Baldwin, especially as many Wisconsinites are struggling deeply in Biden’s economy (see this thread if you want to know how badly.)
Eric Hovde vs. Tammy Baldwin
That doesn’t mean that Hovde doesn’t have his work cut out for him in Wisconsin. Although it’s tied among likely voters, Baldwin leads among registered voters in the poll. “Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 52% and Republican challenger Eric Hovde by 47% among registered voters,” the Marquette Law School poll found.
According to the poll, the likely voter total includes people who are undecided but pick Hovde if forced to choose; that means that Hovde still must work to lock those people firmly down. However, he has the resources to do so.
” These results include initially undecided voters who are then asked which candidate they would pick if they had to decide. The initial question, including undecided voters, produces slightly different results, with Baldwin at 44%, Hovde at 37%, and undecided at 18% among registered voters. Among likely voters, Baldwin was favored by 45%, Hovde by 41%, and 15% were initially undecided,” the poll says.
According to Wisconsin Public Radio, Baldwin raised $5.4 million and spent $3.2 million in the “first three months of the year,” and she has $10 million cash on hand.
Hovde loaned his campaign $8 million and raised $1 million. He spent $3.7 million and has $5.3 million cash on hand, with the ability to self-fund more, WPR reported.
Table of Contents
