Newly released polling data on former President Donald Trump’s increased margins with Black and Hispanic voters mark a seismic shift in the electorate with just two weeks until Election Day.
A USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll released Monday found that nationally, Harris leads Trump by 1 point, well within the margin of error at 46% to 45%.
However, Trump significantly leads Harris with Hispanic voters and has made unprecedented gains among Black voters
The poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters between Oct. 14-18, shows that Trump leads Harris with Hispanics, 49% to 38%.
Harris also has 72% support among Black voters, which is much higher than Trump’s 17% support but much lower than other recent Democrats.
Previous Democrats like former President Barack Obama, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and President Joe Biden received between 90-95% of Black voters’ support.
Black voters hold particular sway in the urban ares of key swing states like Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Minneapolis, Detroit, Atlanta and others.
The increased Hispanic support is a boon to Trump as well, particularly in the southwest swing states of Arizona and Nevada, which is about one third Hispanic.
Notably, Biden received 58% support from Hispanic voters when he beat Trump in 2020.
Harris does much better with women while Trump does better with men, something other polls have shown.
The Center Square Voter’s Voice poll as well as The New York Times/Siena College polling from earlier this month showed Harris’ weakness with Black voters, sending shockwaves through the Democratic party and pushing Harris to roll out new efforts to curry favor with Black voters.
The latest polling shows so far she hasn’t had much success.
Trump spent the weekend at a Pennsylvania McDonalds, simultaneously courting voters in the swing state and mocking his opponent, who he says lied about having previously worked at a McDonalds.
“I’ve now worked [at McDonald’s] for 15 minutes more than Kamala,” Trump told bystanders and media at the McDonalds location.
Meanwhile, Harris fired back online saying that she worked there for a summer job and that Trump wouldn’t understand that since he received a sizeable inheritance from his father.
According to Real Clear Politics’ polling average, Trump leads in every single one of the seven closest swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
His leads, though, are all less than two points and within the margin of error for most polls.
Harris leads by between 4 and 7 percentage points in Minnesota, New Mexico and Virginia.
Trump holds a 7-point lead in Ohio.
With no more scheduled debates and two weeks of feverish campaigning, who will manage to build a slight lead remains to be seen.
Casey Harper
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Reposted with permission
